Выбор момента замены оборудования по данным мониторинга полного жизненного цикла инвестиций

Научные труды Северо-Западного Института Управления РАНХиГС. 2024. Т. 15. № 4. С. 137-142.

Smirnova E.

The article presents an approach to the use of data monitoring payback of implemented projects on the full life cycle as a regular source of data for solving problems of consecutive optimization of replacement of technological equipment. The accumulation of a database for monitoring payback creates an information and analytical basis for conducting post-fact audit and re-evaluation of active projects, forms a series of historical values at the entrance of the procedures of predictive analysis. These data are essential raw information for virtually all known methodological approaches to the problem of choosing the best time to replace equipment, including machine learning algorithms. The author offers a comparison of alternative cash flows on the basis of solving dynamic programming problems with separable utility functions, which use the net interim value of the project’s cash flow or the average annual return on investment, regularly revalued in the process of monitoring the return on investment. These indicators are analytical metrics of the absolute and relative return on investment at the current monitoring date. In addition to the financial criterion, the analysis of alternatives should also take into account technological data on failures and real-time reliability indicators of equipment.

Keywords: денежный поток, discounted cash flow, индекс рентабельности инвестиций, полный жизненный цикл, net interim value, full life cycle costing, чистая промежуточная стоимость, equipment replacement problem, average profitability index, payback period, capex controlling, замена оборудования, срок окупаемости, контроллинг инвестиций