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Working paper

Cyclical Mechanisms in the US and Russia: Why are They Different?

  This paper demonstrates that cyclical movements of major industrial market groups (durable and nondurable consumer products, equipment, materials and supplies) have important peculiarities in Russia and in the US. It allows a better understanding of business cycles in national economies determined with their specific structural features. Based on a statistical analysis of monthly indexes of industrial output (for Russia the relevant indexes were specially calculated by the author), one can conclude that in Russia the dynamics of industrial output do not dependent so much on demand but rather on supply of products. This is explained through both weak diversification of the Russian economy as well as its high degree of monopolization and exceptional role of imports in consumer and investment expenditures.