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Non-Keynesian savings of Russians
National Research University Higher School of Economics
,
2015.
No. 20.
Russian recession of 2014/2015 began with ruble run and rise of inflation. It is just the opposite of the western-type deflationary slump combined with money hoarding. Does it mean that Russians need different micro-model to describe saving and consumption behavior? This study show that work-horse log-linearized rational SDF with CRRA utility still provides good explanation for Russian consumers. It explains dollarization, domestic equity market avoidance, preference for real estate, and chiefly - wary attitude towards rubles. Expectations derived from the past and interactive preferences lock macro economy in the state of steadfast distrust in ruble, prone to inflation. For a while one should not expect Keynesian-type deflationary cycle in Russia. The next recession is likely to be inflationary, requiring monetary tightening. This reasoning is generalized for other emerging countries. Free-floating currency and inflation targeting do not mean easy way ahead for the country with recent negative inflation experience.
Smirnov S. V., Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis 2014 No. 1 P. 103-128
This report investigates the predictability of cyclical turning points in Russia. For years, anyone interested in Russia had access to a full set of common tools for business cycle analysis, such as several composite leading indicators, a purchasing managers’ index, enterprise and consumer sentiment indexes, and so on. However, the 2008-09 world financial crisis spread ...
Added: July 18, 2014
Sokolova A., / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP12 "Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа". 2013. No. 3.
The aim of this research is to identify the process that guides the evolution of infl ation expectations in Russia. The signifi cance of this theoretical issue is stipulated by the fact that the characteristics of this process are the key determinants of both infl ation dynamics and the effectiveness of disinfl ation measures introduced ...
Added: January 23, 2014
Smirnov S. V., Kondrashov N. V., Petronevich A., Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2015 Т. 19 № 4 С. 534-553
At first, we discuss whether the concept of economic cycles is at all applicable to the realities of the Russian economy. As for several subperiods during the last 35 years, it has been not only market but planned and transformed also, this issue is arguable. But in our opinion, all mid-term factors of total economic ...
Added: November 6, 2015
Sokolova A., International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics 2014 Vol. 4 No. 1/2 P. 254 -268
The aim of this research is to identify the process that guides the evolution of inflation expectations in Russia. The significance of this theoretical issue is stipulated by the fact that the characteristics of this process are the key determinants of both inflation dynamics and the effectiveness of disinflation measures introduced by the Central Bank. ...
Added: April 25, 2014
Smirnov S. V., Kondrashov N. V., Petronevich A., / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2016. No. 122.
This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Russian economic cycle from the early 1980s to mid-2015. To detect peaks and troughs, we tested nine monthly indices as reference series, three methods of seasonal adjustments (X-12-ARIMA, TRAMO/SEATS, and CAMPLET), and four methods for dating cyclical turning points (local min/max, Bry-Boschan, Harding-Pagan, and Markov-Switching model). As ...
Added: January 22, 2016
Zamulin O. A., Sosunov K. A., / ЦЭФИР и РЭШ. Series WP101-1 "Научные труды ЦЭФИР и РЭШ". 2007. No. 101.
The paper studies monetary policy in an economy, in which the manufacturing sector is ousted completely by the presence of a large natural resource industry. Thus, the economy produces only non-tradable goods, which can complement or substitute imported goods, and the primary shock to the economy comes from the ”uctuations in the world price of ...
Added: April 22, 2013
Smirnov S. V., / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2014. No. 77.
There is evidence in the economic literature that near cyclical peaks an optimistic bias exists in private expert forecasts of real GDP growth rates. Other evidence concerns differences in the accuracy of GDP forecasts made during expansions and those made during contractions. It has also been hypothesized that a wishful bias may hamper the ability ...
Added: November 28, 2014
Pestova A., / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2014.
The main objective of this paper is to develop leading indicators of business cycle turning points for OECD countries and Russia, in order to reveal common factors of their macroeconomic processes over a long period of time. To predict cycle turning points, leading indicator models with a discrete dependent variable reflecting a business cycle phase ...
Added: February 20, 2014
Dajčman S., Kavkler A., Merzlyakov S. et al., Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice 2022 Vol. 11 No. 1 P. 227-247
This paper studies the international transmission of the
euro area´s monetary policy and financial stress to Russia. The results
show that financial stress in the euro area damages Russian
economic activity and stock prices, but not its trade balance. The
contractionary euro area monetary policy shock decreases Russian
GDP, leads to real appreciation of the euro against the Russian rouble,
damages ...
Added: September 7, 2022
Smirnov S. V., Проблемы теории и практики управления 2016 № 6 С. 109-114
Methodological issues related to designing a system of indicators for tracing Russian business cycle are discussed. Several definitions of economic cycles in their application to the Russian economy are considered. Possible approaches to dating turning points, constructing composite cyclical indicators and their using for monitoring and forecasting cyclical trajectory are analyzed. ...
Added: June 29, 2016
Vernikov A. V., Деньги и кредит 2005 № 2 С. 37-47
В статье рассматривается роль и место банков, контролируемых иностранным капиталом, на рынке частных сбережений. Делается попытка оценить, как присутствие этих банков влияет на отношение населения к банковской системе в целом. Российские тенденции сопоставляются с опытом других стран с переходной экономикой в Центральной и Восточной Европе и Юго-Восточной Европе. ...
Added: December 6, 2010
Anna Bykova, Felix Lopez-Iturriaga, Baltic Journal of Management 2018 Vol. 13 No. 1 P. 20-40
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between export activity and firm performance for a positive impact of foreign direct investments. We also analyse two possible causes of the effect: technology transfer and financial support. The theoretical background is rooted in the resource-based approach taking into account multinational companies’ perspective ...
Added: October 15, 2016
Smirnov S. V., Balashova E., Posvianskaia L., Problems of Economic Transition 2010 Vol. 53 No. 3 P. 69-95
The article considers different approaches, all based on detailed statistical data, to determine which industries and commodities have high, medium, or low sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations. The authors conclude that any exchange rate policy is an inappropriate tool to influence the structure of Russian economy. ...
Added: April 12, 2013
М. : ИМЭМО РАН, 2016
The collection of extended analytical reports presented at the international conference of young scholars “Transformation of World Energy: Market Mechanisms and State Policy” organized by Center of Energy Studies, IMEMO RAN and Faculty of International Energy Business, Gubkin Russian State Oil and Gas University in April, 2016. Undergraduate and postgraduate students of leading Russian universities ...
Added: August 31, 2016
Karabchuk T., Russland-Analysen 2010 No. 200 P. 2-4
The paper gives an overview on unemployemnt in Russia and the concequances of the crisis of 2008. ...
Added: December 9, 2012
Dobrynskaya V. V., Turkisch E., Post-Communist Economies 2010 Vol. 22 No. 3 P. 283-302
Despite the impressive economic growth in Russia between 1999 and 2007, there is a fear that Russia may suffer the Dutch disease, which predicts that a country with large natural resource rents may experience a de-industrialisation and a lower long term economic growth. In this paper we study if there are any symptoms of the ...
Added: October 4, 2012
Vernikov A. V., / Social Science Research Network. Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2013. No. 2223686.
This paper tries to assess some of the effects from industrial policy of growing state-controlled "national champions" in the Russian banking industry. We look at market concentration and competitiveness and average bank efficiency. A modified method of calculating the indicators of market concentration suggests that main segments of the market have crossed the threshold of high ...
Added: February 25, 2013
Saritas O., Kuzminov I., Foresight 2017 Vol. 19 No. 2 P. 218-250
Purpose – This paper aims to analyse the mainstream and emerging global challenges and trends in the global agriculture sector. The analysis leads to a discussion on the present state of the Russian agroindustry and possible future strategies for adaptation in the context of the rapidly changing global environment.
Design/methodology/approach – The design of this study is based on the ...
Added: June 23, 2017
М. : Русский сувенир, 2009
В коллективном исследовании особое внимание уделяется важнейшим элементам экономической безопасности, значение которых в сегодняшнем мире постоянно растёт. Вместе с ними рассмотрен комплекс социальных, правовых, экологических и иных проблем, в совокупности составляющих то, что можно назвать невоенными аспектами национальной и международной безопасности. ...
Added: April 13, 2013
Liudmila Zasimova, Kolosnitsyna M., Post-Soviet Affairs 2018 Vol. 34 No. 6 P. 412-429
This study seeks to discuss the survivability of charitable NGOs in Russia without foreign funding. We use cross-section data from a quantitative household survey conducted in April 2016 to investigate common giving patterns of Russians. Using statistic and regression analysis, we explore causes of donations and individual and social attributes of charitable giving in general ...
Added: October 5, 2018
Нидерле П., Kurakin A. A., Никулин А. М. et al., Вестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Социология 2019 Т. 19 № 2 С. 261-276
The ‘food regime’ approach was introduced as a historical method of “incorporated
comparison” (P. McMichael). This comparison of the role of agriculture in the world-system made some
scholars overemphasize an excessively unitary and coherent global food regime. The authors recognize
this approach as a historical-comparative analytical tool to understand global trends, but argue that
the Russian and Brazilian agrarian ...
Added: June 24, 2019
Penikas H. I., Andrievskaya I. K., Model Assisted Statistics and Applications 2012 Vol. 7 No. 4 P. 267-280
According to the strategy of the banking system development until 2015, the Central Bank of Russia is going to implement Basel II Internal-Ratings-Based (IRB) approaches in 2015, while Basel III is planned to be introduced in full starting from 2019. Taking into account the effects of the Basel II regulation during the crisis 2008-2009, in ...
Added: November 6, 2012
Rasskazova A. N., Научный журнал НИУ ИТМО. Серия: Экономика и экологический менеджмент 2015 Т. 21 № 2 С. 77-84
This article discusses the range of issues concerning the laws governing the formation of growth factors in the value of the interaction of industrial firms with a bank in a recession. Purpose - to test the installation of the conceptual model of investment and lending activities of industrial companies for evaluation of management effectiveness. In ...
Added: April 17, 2015