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Working paper

Forecasting employment in small businesses in Russia: the relevance of business tendency surveys.

The Article Studies The Predictive Capabilities Of Qualitative Assessments Of Employment Expectations Obtained From Business Tendency Observations Of Entrepreneurial Activity, Which Are Currently A Widespread Source Of Economic Information Both In National And International Practice. The Study Is Based On Market Surveys Conducted By Rosstat, Which Characterize The Expected Level Of Business Activity In The Segment Of Small Enterprises From The 1st Quarter Of 2008 To The 2nd Quarter Of 2019. The Aim Of The Study Is To Prove The Existence Of A Stable Statistically Significant Relationship Between Predicted Estimates Of Employment With The Dynamics Of Growth Rate Cycles Of The Corresponding Quantitative Statistical Macro-Aggregates In Various Sectors And, Therefore, The Relevance Of Predictive Models Of Employment Change Based On The Results Of Business Surveys. It Is Shown That Entrepreneurial Assessments And Expectations Are Effective Predictive Indicators For Predicting Employment Dynamics In The Short Term (Two To Four Months) And Identifying Turning Points In Employment Dynamics In The Small Sector. Small Business, As One Of The Most Sensitive Segments, Is One Of The First To React To The Current Changes, Which Makes Forecasting In This Segment Especially Important.