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Working paper

Belt and Road initiative: challenges and opportunities for China and for the world

Texto para discussao. ISSN 0103-9466. IE, Campinas, 2019. No. 366.
Mozias P., De Conti B.
China’s initiative about “One Belt, One Road” could be treated ambiguously. On the one hand, it is intended to transform the newly acquired economic potential of that country into her higher status in the world. China invites a lot of nations to build up gigantic transit corridors by joint efforts, and doing so she applies productively her capital and technologies. International transactions in RMB are also being expanded. But, on the other hand, “One Belt, One Road” is also a necessity for China to cope with some evident problems of her current stage of development, such as industrial overcapacity, overdependence on imports of raw materials from a narrow circle of countries, and a subordinate status in global value chains. For Russia a participation in “One Belt, One Road” may be fruitful, since the very character of that project provides us with a space to manoeuvre. By now, Russian exports to China consist primarily of fuels and other commodities. More active industrial policy is needed to correct this situation. A flexible framework of “One Belt, One Road” is more suitable for this objective to be achieved, rather than traditional forms of regional integration, such as a free trade area.