Indices of Regional Economic Activity for Russia
Economics. EC. Высшая школа экономики , 2017. No. 169.
Regional statistics published by the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) are reviewed in terms of quality, and radical disagreement between “month-on-month” and “year-on-year” monthly statistics is identified. In view of this, an original method is proposed for estimating the level of Regional Economic Activity (REA), based on monthly official regional statistics in five key sectors of the Russian economy: industry, construction, retail trade, wholesale trade, and paid services for the population. This method transforms current “year-on-year” growth rates into specially constructed dichotomous variables, which eliminate the excessive volatility and inaccuracy of the initial time series. On these grounds, REA indices are estimated for all Russian constituent entities for the period from January 2005 to May 2017. Composite REA indices for all five economic sectors, eight federal districts, and Russia as a whole are then calculated. Methods for visualising multidimensional regional data are also proposed. They allow us to track the regional peculiarities of the Russian economy and to discern the current phase of the business cycle more accurately and without any additional lag. Several illustrative examples for the possible application of these indices in real time monitoring and analyses are provided.
Вопросы статистики 2016 № 12 С. 29-38
This article proposes an original method for estimating regional economic activity in Russia. It is based on monthly official regional statistics in five main sectors of the Russian economy (industry, construction, retail trade, wholesale trade and paid services) but transforms it into specially constructed dichotomous variables which eliminate an excessive volatility of initial time-series. Indices of ...
Added: December 19, 2016
Predicting US Recessions: Does a Wishful Bias Exist? / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2014. No. 77.
There is evidence in the economic literature that near cyclical peaks an optimistic bias exists in private expert forecasts of real GDP growth rates. Other evidence concerns differences in the accuracy of GDP forecasts made during expansions and those made during contractions. It has also been hypothesized that a wishful bias may hamper the ability ...
Added: November 28, 2014
This thought-provoking monograph analyzes long- medium- and short-term global cycles of prosperity, recession, and depression, plotting them against centuries of important world events. Major research on economic and political cycles is integrated to clarify evolving relationships between the global center and its periphery as well as current worldwide economic upheavals and potential future developments. Central ...
Added: October 15, 2016
Cyclical Mechanisms in the US and Russia: Why are They Different? / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP2 "Количественный анализ в экономике". 2013. No. 01.
This paper demonstrates that cyclical movements of major industrial market groups (durable and nondurable consumer products, equipment, materials and supplies) have important peculiarities in Russia and in the US. It allows a better understanding of business cycles in national economies determined with their specific structural features. Based on a statistical analysis of monthly indexes ...
Added: May 13, 2013
Детерминанты прямых иностранных инвестиций в регионы Российской Федерации: результаты экономико-математического моделирования
Вестник Пермского университета. Серия: Экономика 2017 Т. 12 № 3 С. 404-420
Direct foreign investment plays an important role in the world economy. Between the countries there is a huge competition for their involvement as they positively affect the economy of a recipient country. In addition to the direct effects, such as GDP growth, budget revenues, reducing unemployment, direct foreign investment positively impacts a host country indirectly ...
Added: February 15, 2018
They are Different, They are Similar: A Comparison of the Levels of Entrepreneurship in Germany and Russia
They are Different, They are Similar: A Comparison of the Levels of Entrepreneurship in Germany and Russia / Centre for German and European Studies Bielefeld / St. Petersburg. Series WP 2014-04 "CGES Working Papers". 2014.
This paper investigates the differences in entrepreneurial activity between Germany and Russia. It covers analysis at national and regional levels using data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor and official statistics. The results show that Russia has more potential for entrepreneurship than Germany, but this potential is underused in contrast to Germany because Russia has worse ...
Added: November 2, 2015
Журнал институциональных исследований 2021 Т. 13 № 1 С. 60-75
The article is devoted to the analysis of interrelation between economic growth and change of government in the regions of Russia. The authors hypothesize that there is some correlation between them. In order to test the hypothesis, the quantitative analysis based on the data of 82 subjects of the Russian Federation was used. It was ...
Added: April 11, 2021
Вопросы статистики 2021 Т. 28 № 2 С. 24-41
The article proposes a new set of composite indicators-predictors in business tendency surveys, which allow identifying early information signals of a cyclical nature in the economic behavior of business agents. The main criterion for the efficiency of such indicators is their sensitivity to a cyclical pattern and changes in the dynamics of statistical referents. Property ...
Added: May 11, 2021
Journal of Institutional Economics 2015 Vol. 11 No. 4 P. 847-874
This paper addresses the link between the strong inflow of FDI into Russia in the 2000s and its weak institutions, using plant-level data across subnational regions. The findings imply that investors have responded positively to improve quality of institutions in certain regions, which offered a combination of wealth, skills and good infrastructure. High development levels in ...
Added: February 19, 2015
Межстрановой опыт прогнозирования макроэкономических и кредитных кризисов и его применение для России
Экономическая политика 2020 Т. 15 № 5 С. 130-159
This paper provides a joint analysis of business and credit cycles with a focus on unobservable factors affecting both cycles, at the cross-country level. Using quarterly data for 19 developed countries and Russia for the period from 1994 to 2018, we build a system of two dynamic probit models, which includes a cross-correlation between the ...
Added: July 9, 2021
Вопросы экономики 2013 № 7
The objective of this study is to develop a system of leading indicators of the business cycle turning points on a wide range of countries, including Russia, over a more than thirty years period. We use a binary choice model with the dependent variable of the state of economy: the recession, there is no recession. ...
Added: June 6, 2013
Практика идентификации ненаблюдаемых компонент в траектории ВВП: потенциальный уровень и краткосрочные разрывы
Вопросы статистики 2015 № 10 С. 14-25
The authors systematize the most well-known concepts and definitions of potential output and gaps according to the various economic schools approaches. The article also provides a typology of basic econometric methods for estimating potential level and output gap in the national gross product dynamics. The authors give a brief description of various econometric methods of statistical ...
Added: December 16, 2015
Циклы, кризисы, ловушки современной Мир-Системы. Исследование кондратьевских, жюгляровских и вековых циклов, глобальных кризисов, мальтузианских и постмальтузианских ловушек
М.: Либроком, 2012
Исторические и современные события показывают, что циклы, порождающие ловушки и кризисы, являются важнейшим способом социального развития. Так, депрессия, охватившая мир, вновь подтвердила, что цикличность и кризисы органично присущи современной экономике. А бурные события на Ближнем Востоке, вызвавшие политический кризис в регионе, наглядно показали, как и почему социальные системы раз за разом попадают в ловушки завышенных ожиданий ...
Added: March 9, 2013
Economics and Sociology 2018 Vol. 11 No. 2 P. 275-288
This article examines the level and the dynamics of working (economically active) life expectancy in Russia, calculated using the Sullivan method. Our results show that the working life expectancy in Russia is shorter than in European and North American countries. This disadvantage is especially evident for the male population. However, Russian males and females also ...
Added: June 30, 2018
Those Unpredictable Recessions / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2011. No. 02.
Contemporary global economic life is measured in days and hours, but most common economic indicators have inevitable lags of months and sometimes quarters (GDP). Moreover, the real-time picture of economic dynamics may differ in some sense from the same picture in its historical perspective, because all fluctuations receive their proper weights only in the context ...
Added: August 28, 2012
Leading indicators of turning points of the business cycle: panel data analysis for OECD countries and Russia
Leading indicators of turning points of the business cycle: panel data analysis for OECD countries and Russia / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2014.
The main objective of this paper is to develop leading indicators of business cycle turning points for OECD countries and Russia, in order to reveal common factors of their macroeconomic processes over a long period of time. To predict cycle turning points, leading indicator models with a discrete dependent variable reflecting a business cycle phase ...
Added: February 20, 2014
Вопросы статистики 2014 № 4 С. 41-47
The paper summarizes the results of a study of regional macroeconomic factors that determine the level of economic activity of the Russian population aged 50-59 and 60-72. Data of the Federal State Statistics Service for the period from 2009 to 2011 was examined. There were significant factors (such as welfare, employment, urbanization, health and environment ...
Added: April 15, 2014
International Journal of Public Administration 2014 Vol. 37 No. 14 P. 1024-1029
This article provides estimates of a social discount rate (SDR) to inform government policy in Russia. We find that a SDR should be determined for the whole country as well as for particular regions. We apply the social rate of time preferences approach and estimate values for public sector projects at national and regional levels. All calculations are ...
Added: October 6, 2014
Пространственная экономика 2020 Т. 16 № 2 С. 124-141
The author considers a non-cash fare payment system as an effective tool to reduce the shadow income of transport organizations. The object is shadow economy in regions of Russia. The subject is the public passenger transport sphere. The author studies buses on municipal regular transport routes (city and suburbs). The category of buses also includes ...
Added: September 19, 2020
Discerning ‘Turning Points’ with Cyclical Indicators: A few Lessons from ‘Real Time’ Monitoring the 2008–2009 Recession
Discerning ‘Turning Points’ with Cyclical Indicators: A few Lessons from ‘Real Time’ Monitoring the 2008–2009 Recession / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP2 "Количественный анализ в экономике". 2011. No. 03.
The cyclical indicators approach has been used for decades but the last recession has once more rekindled an interest for them throughout the world. Several new techniques and indicators were introduced in recent years but the actual quality of these ‘newcomers‘ was not well established. During the last recession, performance of such ‘veterans’ as indexes ...
Added: December 26, 2012
Dordrecht, L., Heidelberg, NY: Springer, 2011
The main aim of the book is, naturally, to give students the fundamental notions and instruments in linear algebra. Linearity is the main assumption used in all fieldsof science. It gives a first approximation to any problem under study and is widely used in economics and other social sciences. One may wonder why we decided ...
Added: September 11, 2011
М.: ИСЭПН РАН, 2009
Added: April 16, 2013
Copula-Application To Modelling Russian Banking System Capital Adequacy According to Basel II IRB-Approach
Model Assisted Statistics and Applications 2012 Vol. 7 No. 4 P. 267-280
According to the strategy of the banking system development until 2015, the Central Bank of Russia is going to implement Basel II Internal-Ratings-Based (IRB) approaches in 2015, while Basel III is planned to be introduced in full starting from 2019. Taking into account the effects of the Basel II regulation during the crisis 2008-2009, in ...
Added: November 6, 2012
М.: Обсерво, Издательский дом ООО "Новый век медиа", 2015
Издание на русском языке вышло в июне, его презентация состоялась на площадке Петербургского международного экономического форума (ПМЭФ); французская версия вышла свет в октябре 2015 года и была представлена на конференции Сенате Франции. «Ежегодный доклад» (Yearbook) – это основной издательский проект, представляющий экспертизу текущей ситуации в России по широкому кругу политических, экономических и социальных вопросов. Выходит на ...
Added: December 3, 2015