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Working paper

Weak Signals on the Future of Mobile Commerce in Russia

In parallel to the developments in the Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), mobile commerce (m-commerce) has become a large business and technology area with ever-growing market potentials. Comparable to the rest of the world, the m-commerce sector has been developing rapidly in Russia, which provides opportunities for domestic and international enterprises. There are a number of favorable conditions, such as major advancements in the software and smart devices industries, availability of a skilled workforce with a good educational base, a technology-prone society, and increasing public and corporate investments, which reinforce the development of m-commerce. The present study aims to explore the future trends and developments in the m-commerce sector, by focusing on the Weak Signals of emerging future developments in society, technology, economy, environment and policy. Using a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques, the study reviews the evolution of the m-commerce in the world and in Russia, and then presents a set of 10 Weak Signals which were generated using technology mining, patent analysis, literature review, interviews and consultations through expert workshops. The paper discusses future opportunities and threats concerning m-commerce along with critical technologies for Russia for the full exploitation of the potentials in the sector.