Russian Approach to Geoeconomics: Russian Economic Statecraft Since the Beginning of War in Ukraine

Ch. 25. P. 431–454.

Kashin V., Yankova A., Kondakova K.

The war in Ukraine and sweeping Western sanctions introduced against Russia in 2022 have produced major changes in the Russian model of economic development and the Russian approach to economic statecraft. Under the new economic model, the Russian leadership is trying to turn the country into an “economic fortress” that will be self-sufficient in key areas of technology that are vital for national security and social stability. Major import substitution programs have been launched. External economic relations are reoriented toward cooperation with the Global South. Any dependence on the West is considered a weakness to be eliminated even if Russia still manages to secure access to some Western goods and technologies. But dependence on “friendly countries” like China in some sectors is also considered undesirable. Russian economic and industrial policies are undergoing a process of deep securitization, because Russia expects to operate in conditions of a new cold war against the West for the foreseeable future. One of the consequences of that trend is a major redistribution of economic power with Russian state-run companies as well as some domestic private companies cheaply purchasing the assets of global companies or the more “globalized” part of Russian businesses that chose to leave the country. This process will, in turn, lead to significant changes in the Russian economic and political elite, affecting future policies. In spite of the Western sanctions, Russia is still capable of using offensive economic tools to prevent certain countries from supplying weapons to Ukraine or taking other anti-Russian actions.

Keywords: import substitution, geoeconomics, Anti-Russian sanctions, special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s foreign trade

In book

The Oxford Handbook of Geoeconomics and Economic Statecraft

Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2025.