Foreclosures, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
The paper presents an analysis of the G20 summit held under the French Presidency in Cannes on November 3rd and 4th 2011. The author assesses the summit agenda and decisions made by the leaders in the key areas of coordination, including the strategy for growth and jobs, reform of the international monetary system, actions to restore financial stability and strengthen the medium-term foundations for growth, deepening of financial sector reform, fight against corruption, investing for global growth. The paper highlights the challenge of implementing two agendas: the planned and the anti crisis one. The conclusion sums up the strengths and weaknesses of the summit and the G20 summitry, reviews the features of the G20 institutionalization, makes a forecast for the sequence of presidencies after 2015, and puts forward brief recommendations for the Russian G20 presidency in 2013. The publication is prepared within the framework of a joint project of Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) Project and International Organizations Research Institute of the NRU HSE "Increasing Effectiveness of Russia's Participation in G8, G20 and BRICS in accordance with Russian Priorities and National Interests".
Despite the impressive economic growth in Russia between 1999 and 2007, there is a fear that Russia may suffer the Dutch disease, which predicts that a country with large natural resource rents may experience a de-industrialisation and a lower long term economic growth. In this paper we study if there are any symptoms of the Dutch disease in Russia. Using a variety of Rosstat publications and the CHELEM database, we analyse the trends in production, wages and employment in the Russian manufacturing industries, and we study the behaviour of Russian imports and exports. We find that, while Russia exhibits some symptoms of the Dutch disease, e.g. the real appreciation of the rouble, the rise in real wages, the decrease in employment in manufacturing industries and the development of the services sector, the manufacturing production nonetheless increased, contradicting the theory of the Dutch disease. These trends can be explained by the gains in productivity and the recovery after the disorganisation in the 1990s, by new market opportunities for Russian products in the European Union and in CIS countries, by a growing Chinese demand for some products and by a booming internal market. Finally, investments in many manufacturing industries were largely encouraged, whereas those in the energy sector were strongly regulated, which contributed to the economic diversification.
I argue that the rather unfavorable conclusions of the three papers in the session on "Coordination and Tradeoffs" might not be as bad as they seem. In particular, I dwell on challenges facing the central bank using an interest rate that is different from the risk-free rate in its Taylor rule, and show that proper redefinition of the intercept and the slope of the rule allows avoidance of inflationary bias and preserves the stability of equilibrium.
The historical changes in Central and Eastern Europe demanded suitable paths for the transition from centrally planned to market based economies. The lack of relevant experience added to the challenge, giving rise to the incalculable risks of implementing untested policies. By focusing on monetary policy, trade, and convergence, this volume addresses some of the most urgent economic policy issues in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe and beyond.
Authorities of the state regulation, creditors and investors are interested in getting reliable information about the banking sector activities. The procedure of bank financial soundness and accountability evaluation is carried out by supervision authorities as well as by international and national rating agencies. The analysis of the methodologies of bank accountability evaluation and forecasting in Russia shows the following results. The Bank of Russia makes decisions on banks financial soundness based on financial coefficients of different groups; the calculations are grounded on the official bank statements. Apart from financial indicators, rating agencies evaluate qualitative parameters of the bank activities. The common problem of the bank financial accountability analysis in Russia is the lack of use of the forecasting methods predicting the financial statement of banks and the probability of default. As a result, the problem-free banks corresponding to the demands of the supervision authorities on standards were considered to be problematic during the crisis. The aim of this research is the dynamic analysis of the main indicators of the Russian banks activities at the different stages of the economic cycle in order to identify the indicators of the early bankruptcy prediction and the opportunity to forecast the changes in the bank financial statement.
The author traces the analysis evolution of the monetary shocks effects on the economy, exploring the key approaches to modeling of the monetary transmission mechanism. The article emphasizes the necessity of the monetary transmission mechanism modification in the conditions of current financial crisis: the active role reflection of the financial intermediaries, accounting of the development degrees of institutional capacity in the economy.