Instruments to measure Foresight
Foresight is a powerful tool that is frequently applied in response to major challenges facing science, technology, and innovation policy. With the use of Foresight studies, policy makers give a clear indication to the science, technology, and innovation community that policy making is considering a bottom-up approach rather than a purely top-down one. Foresight exercises go beyond simple predictions to become anticipatory intelligence, based on a wide diversity of viewpoints, and knowledge sources. Due to the varying nature and characteristics of Foresight studies, there is no “one indicator that fits all” – different motivations and objectives, different methods and techniques, imply different outputs and outcomes. Hence the indicators we use to describe the studies may take on different meanings – even quantitative indicators can require a great deal of interpretation. Furthermore, the longer-term impacts of the work cannot be assessed in the immediate aftermath of the work. But while many indicators are tailor-made for specific Foresight studies, and are not necessarily fully comparable with those of other different Foresight studies, it is possible to learn from experience and use the indicators and indicator frameworks of earlier Foresight exercises in later ones.
One of the most important issues for the world society in the XXI century is a task to provide pure water for citizens. As evidenced results of expert survey, made by the Higher School of Economics
significant part of water sources for drinking water in Russia doesn’t meet necessary requirements. And one of the most adequate solutions to meet this challenge is using the nanotechnologies in processes of water purification that can solve the set of problems such as polluted sources, obsolete equipment, increased risk of diseases etc. Roadmap “Applying Nanotechnology to Water Treatment” was launched by summarizing opinions of expert community participants both national and foreign regarding the most significant nanotechnologies and products made with their help which are used or can be used for water treatment and purification purposes. The aim of the research is to make special innovation routes R&D-technologies-products-markets that could be used by federal and regional authorities and Russian companies working in the field of water purification. The roadmap becomes the first largescale national foresight exercise in the area of nanotechnologies for water purification.
The objective of this paper is to analyse the scope for improving empirical and methodological foundation of global value chain (GVC) research and for making relevant political decisions, primarily through application of foresight methodology based on the latest trend to combine the approaches of global value chain and national innovation system research. The authors choose Russia as an illustrative case of an economy in the changing geopolitical context to review major trends of global value chains’ development, specific features of Russia’s participation in them, and the necessary steps to increase the quality and efficiency of this participation. Special attention was paid to theoretical, methodological, and empirical tools of GVC research and of making relevant political decisions—which presently are far from being adequate: they need to be supplemented with the new ones to improve the forecasting potential and practical and strategic orientation of the GVC approach. To this end, approaches which would make it possible to research interconnection between global processes and trends with regional and national innovation-based development tendencies become of crucial importance. Application of foresight methodology may significantly contribute to researching the GVC phenomenon, being a major logical step towards creating advanced policy tools to mobilise available resources and coordinate stakeholders’ actions to increase Russia’s global competitiveness. The paper presents a number of case studies which describe practical application of various foresight methodology components to analyse Russian participation in various GVCs, by the examples of specific product and service groups (fresh fruit and vegetables, car parts, mobile phones, air transport, electronic payment systems). The authors conclude that both full-scale foresight studies and specific components thereof could be applied for the purposes of GVC analysis, strategic planning, and making political decisions.
This paper performs a quantitative analysis of trends in technology mining (TM) approaches using 5 years (2011–2015) of Global TechMining (GTM) conference proceedings as a data source. These proceedings are processed with a help of Vantage Point software, providing an approach “tech mining for analyzing tech mining.” Through quantitative data processing (bibliometric analysis, natural language processing, statistical analysis, principal component analysis (PCA)), this study presents an overview, explores dynamics and potentials for existing and advanced TM methodologies in three layers: related methods, data sources, and software tools. The main groups and combinations of TM and related methods are identified. Key trends and weak signals concerning the use of existing (natural language processing (NLP), mapping, network analysis, etc.) and emerging methods (web scraping, ontology modeling, advanced bibliometrics, semantic the theory of inventive problem solving (TRIZ), sentiment analysis, etc.) are detected. The results are considered to be taken as a guide for researchers, practitioners, or policy makers involved in foresight activity.
The goal of the conference is to help build cross-disciplinary networks of analysts, software specialists, and researchers to advance the use of textual information in multiple science, technology, and business development fields. Within this context, conference themes will include, but are not limited to:
DataSourcing, preparing, and interpreting data sources including patents, publications, webscraping, and other novel data sources
Text-mining tools and methodsBest practices in software-based topic modeling, clumping, association rules, term manipulation, text manipulation, etc. Visualization
Applied researchFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) Intelligence gathering to support decision-making in the private sector (e.g., Management of Technology)
The publication was prepared in the scope of the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration Activities “Advancement of the Bilateral Partnership in Scientific Research and Innovation with the Russian Federation”. The paper presents an analysis of best practices in STI priority setting in the EU member states (UK, Germany, and Finland) and in the Russian Federation; compares priority systems adopted by various European countries; and identifies prospective subject areas for further development of international cooperation.
The materials included in the publication will help public authorities, companies, R&D organisations, universities, technology platforms, innovative territorial clusters, and other organisations to identify priority development areas, subject fields, and critical technologies.
The results of the analysis of current and emerging technological shifts in Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC) at the global and national levels are presented in the article. The authors discuss the future of the Russian AIC through the prism of unlikely catastrophic events (jokers). The risks of those events should be taken into consideration when forming the agrarian and scientific-technical policy of the country by modeling stressful scenarios that can be realized in the domestic food sector as a result of triggering of certain drivers.
The objective of this paper is to analyse the scope for improving the empirical and methodological foundation of global value chains (GVCs) research and for making relevant political decisions, primarily through applying Foresight methodology. The authors review the major trends of global value chains’ development, specific features of Russia’s participation in them, and the necessary steps to increase the quality and efficiency of this participation, in particular in the changing geopolitical context. Special attention was paid to the theoretical, methodological, and empirical aspects of GVC research which are far from adequate (we primarily mean international databases such as TiVA and WIOD developed with the participation of the OECD and the WTO): they need to be supplemented with advanced tools to improve their forecasting potential, as well as their practical and strategic orientation. To this end, approaches which would make it possible to research the interconnections between global processes and trends with regional and national innovation-based development tendencies become of crucial importance. Application of Foresight methodology may significantly contribute to researching the GVC phenomenon, being a major logical step towards creating advanced research and policy tools to mobilise available resources and coordinate stakeholders’ actions to increase global competitiveness. The paper presents several case studies which describe the practical application of Foresight methodology to analyse Russian participation in various GVCs, giving examples of specific product and service groups. The authors conclude that both full-scale Foresight studies and specific components thereof could be applied for the purposes of GVC analysis, strategic planning, and political decision making.
The paper presents methods and algorithms for identifying complex concepts relevant for the domain of technological foresight within text collections. An approach based on the so called “black box” principle and combination of statistical and linguistic methods is proposed.
This illuminating book combines theory and practice to analyze the experiences and impacts of foresight activities in various European countries. It includes case studies with a focus on different societal issues including national development, science and technology, and sustainable development.