Макроэкономический консенсус-прогноз в контексте пандемии
How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected the medium-term (2020-2021) and long-term prospects of the Russian economy? Regular surveys of professional macro-forecasters and consensus forecasts calculated on their basis
allow us to talk about averaged sentiments and expectations of the expert community (in the same sense as it is used to talk about entrepreneurial or consumer sentiments and expectations).
Based on surveys conducted by the HSE 'Development Center' Institute in early February and early May 2020, this Chapter analyzes how the pandemic has affected experts' outlooks of the Russian economy.
Following the four thematic sections – shared security; shared prosperity; migration; civil society, culture and media – the Report focuses on a selection of crucial topics, highlighting both the challenges and the dynamics taking shape in a region that has been hard hit by the coronavirus. Here, as elsewhere in the world, the pandemic has triggered a deep economic crisis that has affected all regional economies. However, here more than elsewhere, the coronavirus has impacted on a context already marred by socio-economic vulnerabilities, inequalities and instability. Furthermore, while confrontation continues to characterise a region where conflicts remain unsolved, geopolitical shifts are bringing about a reconfiguration of the regional order with long-term implications. Against this backdrop, one of the main questions to address is how to turn the pandemic into an opportunity tofind long-term solutions that can foster stability and prosperity in the Mediterranean.
In the second half of the 2010s, the economic situation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) deteriorated as a result of lower oil and other commodity prices, a new round of domestic political instability, continuous intra-regional conflicts, stalled economic and governance reforms and, finally, the COVID-19 pandemic. The deteriorating macroeconomic trends manifested themselves in slower growth rates (which in 2020 turned negative almost everywhere), worsening fiscal and external balances, increasing public debt and, in several cases, higher inflation. There has been no visible progress in resolving long-term structural and institutional challenges such as high unemployment, especially among youths, low female labour market participation, poor quality of education, costly and ineffective public sector activity, high military and security spending, high energy subsidies and others.
There were analyzed the features of households economic activity monitoring at different levels and studied the theoretical problems of its accounting in this article. There were proved that the existing macroeconomic indicators do not adequately reflect the real economic performance and household incomes. There were proposed to use macroeconomic indicators of households’ involvement in the market environment as an objective indicator of the socio-economic condition of society.
The article is dedicated to the method of aggregation of financial analysts’ recommendations in the framework of the evidence theory. This method considered on the example of Russian stock market and the quality of the obtained results was compared with the classical consensus forecast. It is shown that the combination rules, which are widely developed in the theory of evidence, allow aggregating the recommendations of analysts taking into account the historical reliability of information sources, the nature of the taken decisions (pessimism-optimism), the conflict between forecasts and recommendations, etc. In most cases it turned out that, obtained aggregated forecasts are more accurate than consensus forecast.
At the present time the problem of managing the cost of capital in conditions of external economic shocks is particularly relevant. This occurs because of implementation in 2014 by Bank of Russia new requirements for the structure and capital adequacy of Russian banks in accordance with the Basel 3 capital standards. In this paper we investigate the dependence between the total capital value of the Russian Federation banking sector and the main macroeconomic indicators. Also we assessed the extent and speed of their impact on capital, based on the vector autoregression model.
Currently, there are a number of economic and mathematical models designed for mass appraisal of real estate, tailored to their construction and performance properties, but taking no account of the evolving macroeconomic situation in the country and the world. The disadvantage of such static models is their rapid obsolescence, the need for constant updating, and unsuitability for medium-term forecasting. On the other hand, there are dynamic models that take into account the current macroeconomic situation; however, they are intended for predicting and studying the overall price situation in the real estate market, but not for mass appraisal of real estate with their variety of construction and performance properties. In this regard, the aim of this research is to develop methods of creating complex models having the properties of the static and dynamic models mentioned, i.e., taking into account construction and performance properties, as well as changing macroeconomic situation in the country and in the world. Methods and models are developed with the use of neural network technology basing on the example of the residential real estate in Perm and on statistical information of the market over the period from 2005 to 2015. In addition to its primary purpose – mass appraisal of apartments, the model is suitable for medium-term forecasting and identification of the real estate market regularities. For example, it has been found out that the price of Perm apartments as a whole tends to increase due to the rise of the oil prices, but the dependence of the cost of apartments on the price of oil is stable and direct only when the latter exceeds $ 60 – 80 per barrel. In case the volume of mortgage lending rises, the price of apartments in Perm will increase. However, the growth rate of the cost of elite four-room apartments will begin to slow down, with an increase in mortgage lending volumes above 2400 – 2700 million rubles, whereas this effect will not be apparent for cheap one- and two-bedroom apartments. Further housing construction in Perm to 1,400 sq m in the short term will not cause a noticeable change in residential property prices in Perm, which suggests that the market is still far from saturation.
The article focuses on two important areas of integration of the Greater Eurasia project: the sphere of defense and security, as well as the economic and geographical dimension in the context of the export of a pandemic. The first part of the article examines in detail the defense and security dimension of Greater Eurasia, using the example of military cooperation between China and Russia as the main driver of Greater Eurasia.