International Trade at a Triple Crossroads
During the last decade, international trade has undergone many shocks of different kinds that have dramatically changed the nature of trade itself. Now international trade has come to a triple crossroads.
First, international trade had grown at a higher rate than GDP for many decades, a trend that was interrupted by the global financial and economic crisis in 2010. The recent study of the IMF (2016) cast doubt on whether trade would remain a driving engine of the world economy. It is also unclear how digital technologies might change the features of world trade. Second, the leading nations have responded to the crisis by imposing massive trade restrictions (that the G20 had initially managed to avoid). As a result, the multilateral system of trade regulation has been plunged into a deep crisis.
Finally, global governance in trade itself is at a crossroads, with nationalistic feelings on the rise and the threat looming of widening trade wars. Worse, it remains unclear whether this situation will stabilise any time soon.
The paper explores the evolution of trade and economic relations between Russia and Myanmar in 1948-2018. The author compares the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of Myanmar cooperation with China, India and Russia, highlighting their features and prospects. Summarizing the results, the author states that, despite the currently modest volumes of trade and investment, the potential for developing foreign economic relations between Russia and Myanmar is very high. However, Myanmar is an important link in the regional strategies of China and India, which also belong to the BRICS and the SCO. Therefore, it is impossible for Russia to build its political and economic ties with Myanmar without taking these aspects of regional relations into account.
The protracted nature of the current global financial crisis has led to reduced forecasts of economic and energy consumption growth accompanied by an obvious accelerated increase in the share taken by developing countries. • In the long term, fossil fuels will remain dominant, against the background of a slower growth in the share of non-hydrocarbon energy resources than was estimated in the previous Outlook. The ‘shale breakthrough’ has postponed for two or three decades the threat of running out of economically viable oil and gas reserves – which had seemed so close just five to seven years ago – and has secured the predominantly hydrocarbon character of the world’s energy sector. The share of oil and gas in world primary energy consumption will remain practically unchanged (53.6 per cent in 2010 and 51.4 per cent by 2040). • The study of oil and gas price dynamics in different scenarios did not show fundamental cause for alarmist forecasts predicting either too high, or extremely low, prices within the period under review. In all cases – ranging from future success to possible failure of shale technologies – oil prices in 2040 will not move out of the range $100–130/bbl. Gas prices will be closely correlated with oil prices, but also strongly differentiated by region (which does not exclude large short-term fluctuations in prices under the influence of political and speculative factors). • Despite the integration of oil and gas markets, as international trade in oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) expands, the trend towards regionalization of prices, resulting in considerable differences in price levels, will gain momentum. • Natural gas will account for the most substantial increase in absolute volumes of consumption, and the share taken by gas in primary energy consumption will increase more than that of any other fuel. The next 30 years could, quite reasonably, be considered as ‘the era of gas’. But Russia runs the risk of missing the resulting opportunities. • The consequences of the expected transformation of world energy and, especially, hydrocarbon markets will not significantly change the fuel markets themselves, but the positions of the leading market participants will clearly be rebalanced, while some global players will be able to gain influence. The results of our research clearly show that Russia will be more susceptible to adverse changes in market conditions during the forecast period. In the Baseline Scenario, Russian oil and gas exports to foreign markets appear to be significantly lower than the official national projections. • High costs and the current taxation system both limit the competitiveness of Russian energy resources in global markets. The Russian fuel and energy complex could face severe restrictions on external demand for energy resources at prices acceptable to Russia, resulting in additional risks for Russia’s energy sector and economy. This research provides preliminary estimates of the consequences of this impact on the country’s economic growth (one percentage point slowdown per year) and possible measures to compensate for it.
The key issues of the theory and practice of modern trade policy and multilateral regulation of international trade in goods and services within the framework of the GATT/WTO system, including the use of trade regulation instruments, as well as the institutional framework of national and international trade regulation mechanisms are considered.
The factors and reasons that prevented the USSR from becoming a GATT contracting party are analyzed, as well as consequences of refusal by the USSR of membership in the system of multilateral regulation. The issues of ensuring Russia's effective participation in the WTO are considered. Special attention is focused on the role of the WTO in the current situation, as well as on alternative scenarios of development of the system of international trade regulation in the context of attempts to form mega-regional trade agreements.
This collection includes scientific reports presented for participation in the International Conference: "The Evolution of the Global Trade System: problems and prospects" which took place on October 20-22, 2016 in St.Petersburg
This book contains a unique collection of studies on key economic and social policy challenges faced by countries of the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean region in a short- and long-term perspective. Prepared within the EU funded FP7 project on „Prospective Analysis for the Mediterranean Region (MEDPRO)” conducted in 2010-2013 it takes account on recent political developments in the region (Arab Spring) and their potential consequences. It covers a broad spectrum of topics such as factors of economic growth, macroeconomic and fiscal stability, trade and investment, Euro-Mediterranean and intra-regional economic integration, private sector development and privatizations, infrastructure, tourism, agriculture, financial sector development, poverty and inequality, education, labor market and gender issues.