The New Paradigm of Innovational Development of Russia’s AIC in the Conditions of the EAEU
Purpose: The purpose of the work is to analyze the causal connections of innovational development of the AIC in the conditions of the EAEU by the example of modern Russia. Methodology: The research is performed in three stages. At the first stage, the methods of trend and comparative analysis are used for analyzing and comparing the dynamics of indicators of development of Russia’s AIC before the creation of the EAEU (2012–2015) and in the conditions of this integration union (2015–2018). The information and analytical basis includes materials of the Overview of actual and problem issues of implementation of coordinated agro-industrial policy, prepared by the Department of agro-industrial policy of the Eurasian Economic Commission. At the second stage, the method of forecasting (all other conditions being equal) is used for determining the forecast values of indicators from Table 1 for the mid-term (2019–2024) – this allows bringing the selection of statistical data to the representative volume (10 years: 2015–2024). Then, the method of regression analysis is used for determining the dependence of indicators of innovational development of the Russian AIC on the volume of mutual trade of food products within the EAEU by Russia. This allows determining the influence of participation in the EAEU on innovational development of the Russian AIC. At the third stage, the method of regression analysis is used for determining the dependence of results (volume of import of food products and agricultural resources, level of food security) on the indicators of innovational development of the Russian AIC. The information and analytical basis includes the materials of the Federal State Statistics Service and the Economist Intelligence Unit. This allows evaluating the efficiency of innovational development of the AIC in the conditions of the EAEU and achievement of the goals of creation of the integration union that are connected to development of the AIC.Results: As a result of the research, it is determined that participation in the EAEU positively influences the innovational development of the Russian AIC, stimulating the formation of its new paradigm, connected to growth of investment and innovational activity of companies of this complex, which stimulates modernization of production technologies and equipment and growth of efficiency. Recommendations: It is substantiated that the new paradigm of innovational development of the Russian AIC in the conditions of the EAEU allows increasing the efficiency of this development by forming highly-effective and competitive import substitution and growth of national food security of Russia. © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020.