Growth Poles of the Global Economy: Emergence, Changes and Future Perspectives
Describes the potential growth poles of the modern global economy and substantiates their advantages compared to the current growth poles Includes fundamental substantiation and practical recommendations Discusses the process of overcoming the consequences of the global financial crisis The book
The purpose of the work is to develop a new concept of social justice in the globalizing economy. Methodology: During development of a new concept of social justice in the globalizing economy, the authors use the global goals in the sphere of sustainable development, adopted by the UN in 2015 (for the period until 2030), which are the scientific and methodological platform of this research. Results: Comparative analysis of the methodology of provision of national justice and global justice is performed; it is determined that though the goals of provision of social justice are universal, the methodology of their achievement is different at the national and global levels. The methods of provision of global social justice include the credit and investment support for developing countries, agro-industrial innovations, innovations in healthcare, digital education, international migration, cultural globalization, international norms and standards of nature use, transition to alternative sources of energy, and independent international arbitrage. Recommendations: A new concept of social justice in the conditions of globalization of economy is developed and recommended for practical application. It is aimed at balancing the possibilities and provision of equal conditions for conducting economic activities of the participants of international economic relations. This concept is based on the global goals in the sphere of sustainable development and is implemented with the help of a specific (as compared to national concepts) methodology. Its result is maximization of the global well-being
The purpose of the work is to determine the regularities and tendencies of globalization of education in the conditions of formation of the global knowledge economy, to compile forecasts of future development of this process, and to determine the conditions and factors of its acceleration and to develop recommendations for managing these factors. Methodology: The authors use theoretical (qualitative) methods of scientific research—systemic, problem, logical, and process analysis; and practical (quantitative) methods of scientific research—trend and regression analysis. Regression analysis is used for determining the dependence of the indicators of globalization of education on the indicators of formation of knowledge economy. As specialized indices of globalization of education are absent, and target statistical accounting of this process is not conducted, the research objects include universities from nine countries of the world, which show the highest global competitiveness according to the QS in 2018, and from Russia. Results: In the course of the research, the authors have not determined statistically significant influence of various indicators of knowledge economy (export of hi-tech, state expenditures for R&D and for education) on the indictors of globalization of education (global competitiveness of the leading national university, share of foreign lecturers and foreign students). This excludes mutual influence of knowledge economy and globalization of education and shows that this process is unidirectional—globalization of education stimulates the formation of the global knowledge economy. It is not possible to determine clear quantitative regularities due to statistical insignificance of the obtained regression models—however, the tendencies of globalization of education are found—reduction of the share of foreign lecturers and increase of the share of foreign students in 2016–2018, which reflect contradiction of this process and its slow rate. Recommendations: Framework recommendations are offered for managing the factors of globalization of education: development of remote education, adoption of international standards of education, issue of international diplomas, and increase of flexibility of the educational process.
: The purpose of the article is to determine the place and role of local entrepreneurial structures in the process of acceleration of growth of the modern global economy and to substantiate the preferential directions (stimulation or restraint) of state and supra-national regulation of further development of local entrepreneurship. Methodology: The authors use the method of regression analysis for determining the influence of gross added value that is created by local entrepreneurial structures on the annual growth rate of the global GDP. For obtaining the most precise and detailed results, the research is conducted for two time periods: before the global financial crisis (2000–2008) and after it (2010–2018), which allows achieving representativeness of both selections (number of observations for time rows is nine). The information and empirical base of the research is statistical data of the World Bank. Results: It is determined that local entrepreneurial structures do not directly stimulate the acceleration of growth of the modern global economy. This influence is predetermined by the growth of local economy, which is a structural item of the global economic system. Though in quantitative expression the growth rate of the modern global economy is not influenced by local entrepreneurial structures, their development stimulates the increase of quality of this growth, ensuring its stability and balance. Recommendations: It is shown that growth of the number and strengthening of positions of local entrepreneurial structures in local sectorial markets after the global financial crisis (2010–2018) reduce their susceptibility to future crises and increases economic security due to development of import substitution. That’s why the measures of state regulators should be oriented at stimulation of development of local entrepreneurial structures for accelerating the growth rate of the national economy. However, for acceleration of growth of the modern global economy it
The purpose of the article is to compare the models of state regulation of economic growth, connected to market optimization and counter-cyclical regulation, through the prism of their influence on population’s living standards and to determine the most optimal one according to the criterion of maximization of positive influence. Methodology: The authors use the method of regression analysis for determining the dependence of the life quality index in 2018 on the 2007 level, growth rate of GDP (model of market optimization), and depth of decline of GDP in the crisis period (2010) (model of counter-cyclical regulation). The research objects include 16 developed and developing countries that are peculiar for the highest living standards as of 2018–8 countries implement the model of market optimization and 8 countries implement the model of counter-cyclical regulation. Results: It is concluded that maximization of advantages for the global economy, connected to increase of population’s living standards, requires the model of counter-cyclical regulation, which envisages limitation of growth rate of economy in the period of its rise for leveling the following cyclical fluctuations–minimization of crisis in the period of decline. The alternative model of market optimization is undesired, as it hinders the achievement of global goals in the sphere of sustainable development, reducing population’s living standards. Recommendations: It is shown that practical implementation of global goals in the sphere of sustainable development envisages unification of the practice of national state regulation of economic growth for optimizing the growth of the modern global economy. The authors’ recommendations for this are offered.
The purpose of the article is to determine the current position of Russia in the modern global economic system through the prism of the methodology of the theory of growth poles of economic growth and to create a strategy of increasing the global competitiveness of the Russian economy and Russia’s becoming a new growth vector of the global economy. Methodology: The authors use the method of regression analysis for determining the dependence of the annual growth rate of the global GDP on the volume of Russia’s GDP in market prices, developing a strategy of increasing the global competitiveness of the Russian economy and Russia’s becoming a new growth vector of the global economy, and determining the growth poles of the Russian economy, with study of the influence of the volume of production in various spheres of national economy on annual growth rate of Russia’s GDP in market prices. The research is conducted in the period of post-crisis restoration of the Russian economy — 2009– 2018, on the basis of statistical data of the Federal State Statistics Service and the World Bank. Results: It is substantiated that Russia is a growth pole of the world economy. However, Russia’s potential is not fully implemented due to imperfection of the strategy of managing the competitiveness. Recommendations: For solving this problem, framework recommendations are offered for development and implementation of a new strategy of increasing the global competitiveness of the Russian economy and opening its potential as a growth vector of the global economy, aimed at activation of innovational development of industry on the basis of the sphere of Industry 4.0. Practical implementation of the developed strategy will allow increasing the investment attractiveness and using the resources for increasing the global competitiveness of the Russian economy and opening its potential as a growth vector of the global economy
The purpose of the article is to develop scenarios of develop8 ment of the modern global economy with various growth poles and to determine the 9 optimal new trajectory of its development. Methodology: In order to determine the 10 current growth poles of the modern global economy, the authors use the methods of 11 regression and factor analysis (for assessing the contribution of various economic 12 spheres into formation of the global GDP and growth rate of the global economy. 13 The empirical base of the research is statistical data of the World Bank and the 14 International Monetary Fund. Results: Scenarios of development of the modern 15 global economy are compiled with various growth poles—agriculture (source of 16 growth: Agro 4.0) industry (source of growth: Industry 4.0), innovations (source of 17 growth: high-tech), and service sphere (source of growth: e-commerce). These scenarios are compared through the prism of potential of growth (perspectives of 19 innovational development), sustainability of growth (ecological effectiveness), risk 20 level (susceptibility to crises), and probability. A conclusion is made that these 21 operations should not be necessarily viewed as alternative, and their complex 22 implementation will allow achieving the highest effectiveness of growth and 23 development of the modern global economy. Recommendations: a model of mul24 tipolar development of the modern global economy is recommended. The advan 25 tage of this model is diversity of poles and sources of growth of the global GDP, 26 systemic interaction of which ensures the emergence of the synergetic effect— 27 additional acceleration of the rate of economic growth.
Purpose: The purpose of the article is to determine the scenarios innovational development of the Russian AIC in the conditions of the EAEU and to develop a competitive model of this development. Methodology: The authors use the method of qualitative scenario analysis for determining the scenarios of innovational development of the Russian AIC in the conditions of the EAEU and the method of modeling of socio-economic processes and systems and the method of formalization (graphic presentation of the results of modeling) for creating a competitive model of innovational development of the Russian AIC in the conditions of the EAEU. Results: Three scenarios of innovational development of the modern Russia’s AIC are determined–technical modernization, ecologization, and transition to AIC 4.0–each of which envisages narrow specialization and cannot guarantee high competitiveness of the studied complex. For receiving the highest advantages from innovational development of the modern Russia’s AIC, it is offered to combine all three scenarios that have to determine the directions of this development. Due to this, the manufactured food products will be diversified and, therefore, will be less dependent on the change of consumer preferences in separate segments of the market and fluctuations of the world prices for food. This will ensure high global competitiveness of development of the Russian AIC, as the platform of the EAEU will provide export to the participants of this integration union and to the world markets. Recommendations: A competitive model of innovational development of the Russian AIC in the conditions of the EAEU is developed and recommended for practical application. © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020.
Purpose: The purpose of the work is to analyze the causal connections of innovational development of the AIC in the conditions of the EAEU by the example of modern Russia. Methodology: The research is performed in three stages. At the first stage, the methods of trend and comparative analysis are used for analyzing and comparing the dynamics of indicators of development of Russia’s AIC before the creation of the EAEU (2012–2015) and in the conditions of this integration union (2015–2018). The information and analytical basis includes materials of the Overview of actual and problem issues of implementation of coordinated agro-industrial policy, prepared by the Department of agro-industrial policy of the Eurasian Economic Commission. At the second stage, the method of forecasting (all other conditions being equal) is used for determining the forecast values of indicators from Table 1 for the mid-term (2019–2024) – this allows bringing the selection of statistical data to the representative volume (10 years: 2015–2024). Then, the method of regression analysis is used for determining the dependence of indicators of innovational development of the Russian AIC on the volume of mutual trade of food products within the EAEU by Russia. This allows determining the influence of participation in the EAEU on innovational development of the Russian AIC. At the third stage, the method of regression analysis is used for determining the dependence of results (volume of import of food products and agricultural resources, level of food security) on the indicators of innovational development of the Russian AIC. The information and analytical basis includes the materials of the Federal State Statistics Service and the Economist Intelligence Unit. This allows evaluating the efficiency of innovational development of the AIC in the conditions of the EAEU and achievement of the goals of creation of the integration union that are connected to development of the AIC.Results: As a result of the research, it is determined that participation in the EAEU positively influences the innovational development of the Russian AIC, stimulating the formation of its new paradigm, connected to growth of investment and innovational activity of companies of this complex, which stimulates modernization of production technologies and equipment and growth of efficiency. Recommendations: It is substantiated that the new paradigm of innovational development of the Russian AIC in the conditions of the EAEU allows increasing the efficiency of this development by forming highly-effective and competitive import substitution and growth of national food security of Russia. © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020.
Purpose: The purpose of the work is to determine new challenges and driving forces of innovational development of the Russian AIC in the conditions of the EAEU and to develop a conceptual approach to implementing the investment and innovational projects by modern Russian companies of the AIC. Methodology: The authors use the method of systemic, problem, and logical analysis and synthesis, induction, deduction, economic modeling, and formalization. Results: New challenges of innovational development of the Russian AIC in the conditions of the EAEU are determined: Growth of competition of R&D institutes in the AIC, growth of competition of manufacturers in the AIC, necessity for observing the regulations during R&D in the AIC, and growth of competition of sellers in the AIC. New driving forces of innovational development of the Russian AIC in the conditions of the EAEU are determined: Innovational networks, technological parks in the AIC, transnational clusters in the AIC, state support for R&D in the AIC by all countries of the EAEU, and export of products of the AIC to the countries of the EAEU. Recommendations: It is substantiated that in the conditions of the EAEU companies of the Russian AIC face new challenges and receive new driving forces for innovational development. The offered conceptual approach to implementation of investment and innovational projects by modern Russian companies of the AIC allows for the most effective usage of the possibilities of the EAEU and for maximization of advantages of all interested parties, which—in the national scale—will ensure growth of competitiveness of the Russian AIC, provision of national food security, and increase of export. © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020.