Technology Roadmaps: Emerging Technologies in the Aircraft and Shipbuilding Industries
The paper analyzes emerging technologies in aircraft and shipbuilding industries aimed at addressing common grand challenges. For this purpose, the authors propose a framework for global trends and technology identification in two fields of the transport sector based on scenario and roadmapping approaches. The suggested framework helps policy-makers, companies, and other interested parties set priorities, select innovation projects, and implement them based on a vision of a desirable future.
Scott L. Newbert, PhD, is associate professor of management, Harry Halloran Emerging Scholar in Social Entrepreneurship, and Anne Quinn Welsh Faculty Fellow in Honors at Villanova University. His research on the socioeconomic impacts of entrepreneurial activity and valuation strategies for small firms has been published in numerous journals, including Strategic Organization, Small Business Economics, and Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice. He received his doctorate in strategic management and entrepreneurship from Rutgers University.
This book provides an impressive overview of emerging technologies, especially nanotechnologies and biotechnologies, and their prospective applications. It identifies and describes existing and potential markets for emerging technologiy-based applications, and projects scenarios for macroeconomic development based on these technologies. Integrated roadmaps for the development of a nano- and bioindustry are shown and policy measures and corporate strategies developed to advance these technologies. These measures are illustrated using roadmaps and policy case studies.The book combines a practical, comprehensive overview of the technical side of emerging technologies and their applications in various fields with an analysis of market developments and characteristics.
The current paper aims to present the Scan-4-Light study, which was conducted for the systematic scanning and analysis of the Searchlight newsletters as a rapidly growing collection of articles on trends and topics in development and poverty. Built upon the concept of the systemic foresight methodology, the Scan-4-Light approach involves the integrated use of horizon scanning, network analysis and evolutionary scenarios combined with expert consultations and workshops. The study identified the emerging trends, issues, weak signals and wild cards; created high-value visualisations to emphasize the results and findings; and produced narratives to increase the impact and awareness of the development issues. The Scan-4-Light project has resulted in a large number of specific outputs, providing the views of the Searchlight newsletters' contents at various levels of granularity. It has set out to show how the tools used here can be applied to illustrate the relationships among issues, and how these vary across countries and regions over time, and are linked to various stakeholders and possible solutions to problems. Scan-4-Light demonstrates how foresight tools and techniques can be used for the analysis of complex and uncertain issues, such as development and poverty, in a systemic way. The Scan-4-Light approach can be applied in a number of areas for scanning and identifying emerging trends and issues, and understanding the relationships between systems and solutions. The paper gives evidence that most of the issues, if not all, related to development are not isolated, but interlinked and interconnected. They require more holistic understanding and intervention with an effective collaboration between stakeholders.
In the past decades Foresight has been significantly developed as a tool for long-term forecasting in the field of power generation and energy efficiency. Such research aims at investigation of the most promising innovation strategies in this area, identifying various (including alternative) ways to achieve technological and market goals with the participation of best qualified experts. Such Foresight method as Roadmapping is widespread in the world practice. It helps to shape complex and interrelated views on prospects of innovation development in specific areas of energy efficiency, it links R&D programmes with creation of technologies and products, as well as their subsequent commercialization. The paper provides an overview of the world Foresight experience aimed at creating vision of the future and building innovation strategies related to energy efficiency. Special attention is paid to the Russian research practice, in particular to different types of Foresight projects implemented by the specialists of State University - Higher School of Economics. The authors describe the results of main projects dedicated to shape the future of energy-efficient technologies and to develop of innovation strategies on their application.
In parallel with the increasing complexity and uncertainty of social, technological, economic, environmental, political and value systems (STEEPV), there is a need for a systemic approach in Foresight. Recognizing this need, the paper begins with the introduction of the Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) is introduced briefly as a conceptual framework to understand and appreciate the complexity of systems and interdependencies and interrelationships between their elements. Conducting Foresight systemically involves a set of ‘systemic’ thought experiments, which is about how systems (e.g. human and social systems, industrial/sectoral systems, and innovation systems) are understood, modelled and intervened for a successful change programme. A methodological approach is proposed with the use of network analysis to show an application of systemic thinking in Foresight through the visualisation of interrelationships and interdependencies between trends, issues and actors, and their interpretation to explain the evolution of systems. Network analysis is a powerful approach as it is able to analyse both the whole system of relations and parts of the system at the same time and hence it reveals the otherwise hidden structural properties of the systems. Our earlier work has attempted to incorporate network analysis in Foresight, which helped to reveal structural linkages of trends and identify emerging important trends in the future. Following from this work, in this paper we combine systemic Foresight, network analysis and scenario methods to propose an ‘Evolutionary Scenario Approach,’ which explains the ways in which the future may unfold based on the mapping of the gradual change and the dynamics of aspects or variables that characterise a series of circumstances in a period of time. Thus, not only are evolutionary scenarios capable of giving a snapshot of a particular future, but also explaining the emerging transformation pathways of events and situations from the present into the future as systemic narratives.
This paper deals with the creation of a new approach of roadmapping for emerging technologies on the example of applying nanotechnology for water treatment. The suggested approach combines revealing both possibilities of production and prospective consumer requirements in relation to innovative outcomes. The integrated roadmap allows revealing and estimating urgent challenges connected with insufficient water provision for citizens, setting goals for organisations working in this sphere and developing special measures to meet these challenges. This concept was used for roadmap development for nanotechnology water purification technologies with special emphasis on water treatment in Russia. The introduced approach is applicable not only for the sphere of emerging technologies but with some adaptation also for forecasting and strategic planning for corporations and government bodies.
The paper provides a number of proposed draft operational guidelines for technology measurement and includes a number of tentative technology definitions to be used for statistical purposes, principles for identification and classification of potentially growing technology areas, suggestions on the survey strategies and indicators. These are the key components of an internationally harmonized framework for collecting and interpreting technology data that would need to be further developed through a broader consultation process. A summary of definitions of technology already available in OECD manuals and the stocktaking results are provided in the Annex section.
This paper presents evidence suggesting that countries that continuously conduct Foresight studies, and that integrate the results systematically in policy making and the development of supporting measures and programs, perform clearly better in the national innovative performance than other countries. In retrospect, the Foresight studies are also generally considered as something positive in most countries, with evaluations of these studies shows them to have had a significant impact on the structure of innovation, technology and science policy. For instance, the results of Foresight studies are frequently used to establish research and development priorities and to design R&D programmes. The correlational analysis and the evaluation studies thus together suggest that Foresight studies do have a supportive function and role on the innovation culture and awareness for innovation in a country.