A Survey of Composite Leading Indices for Russia
Available composite cyclical indicators for Russia are surveyed, their components are enumerated and analysed. The aims, guiding concepts, and approaches of the newly established Russian Economic Cycle Dating Committee are also described. All the currently available monthly Composite Leading Indices (CLIs) are tested against the most recent cyclical turning points for their capacity to provide a timely alarm signal, especially about an impending recession. It is shown that experts’ informal judgments about Russia’s future economic trajectory remain more informative than findings derived from formal empirical rules. This suggests that there is some room for improvement of the Russian CLIs and additional efforts should be made to construct better cyclical indicators for Russia.