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Возраст государства и социально-политическая дестабилизация: предварительные результаты количественного анализа
Гл. 5. С. 141–169.
Publication based on the results of:
Zhdanov A., Korotayev A., Социология власти 2026 Т. 38 № 2 С. 118–167
Imagining a cosmic future touches on many topics — but typically avoids the topic of death, burial, and attitudes toward deceased ancestors. Most of these developments concern life-support systems. This article analyzes the debate between American anthropologist Elizabeth Povinelli and Russian cosmists. The subject of this debate is immortality and attitudes toward ancestors in the ...
Added: June 29, 2026
Chernomorchenko I., Чихарев И. И., Социодинамика 2026 № 3 С. 34–57
The article examines the autumn 2025 protests in Madagascar as an episode of socio-political destabilization combining features of a coupvolution and Generation Z protest mobilization. The Malagasy events represent the first case in Africa where Generation Z protests culminated in regime change, with the military playing a decisive role—aligning this episode with the coupvolutions in ...
Added: April 5, 2026
Krasnov M., Труды по интеллектуальной собственности 2026 Т. 56 № 1 С. 8–28
Method of quantitative analysis was used to analyze the array of decisions of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation adopted in 1995–2025 in cases in which various issues related to education were considered. In total 209 decisions, resolutions and definitions were identified, which somehow affect Article 43 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation (the right to education). However, only 127 ...
Added: March 24, 2026
Chernomorchenko I., Информационные войны 2025 № 4 (76) С. 20–24
Chronic instability in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is traditionally examined through the lens of con icts in the eastern part of the country; however, ethnicity also plays a central role in driving instability in the western regions. Based on an analysis of the Bundu dia Kongo movement and interethnic con icts in the ...
Added: December 19, 2025
Krasnov M., Вестник Воронежского государственного университета. Серия: Право 2025 № 1 С. 8–34
The article presents the experience of quantitative analysis of the decrees of the President of the Russian Federation adopted from January 1, 1994 to December 31, 2021. The author analyzed 6,104 decrees. They are classified into thematic blocks, within which narrower content groups are highlighted. This method of analysis, which the author calls the method ...
Added: May 7, 2025
Korotayev A., Мусиева Д. М., Zhdanov A., Журнал социологии и социальной антропологии 2024 Т. 27 № 3 С. 106–145
Classification of theories of revolution by generations of the American sociologist J. Goldstone is one of the most common ways to systematize research in this area. In addition to the four generations of theories of revolutions already rooted in scientific discourse, the formation of a new fifth generation is noted in modern science. The article ...
Added: September 16, 2024
Zhdanov A., Korotayev A., Социология власти 2024 Т. 36 № 2 С. 113–141
There are some theoretical grounds to expect that general inflation can have an ambiguous effect on the likelihood ofthe outbreak ofrevolutionary actions: while high inflation has a positive effect on revolutionary activity, moderate inflation reduces the likelihood of revolution, whereas negative inflation values again increase revolutionary activity. At the same time, many researcherssuggest to treatseparately ...
Added: August 29, 2024
Илья Сумерников, Андрей Уфимцев, Slav M. et al., Социологическое обозрение 2024 Т. 23 № 1 С. 302–356
Since the beginning of the 21st century, the number of empirical studies devoted to the analysis of factors influencing the risks of terrorist activity has increased significantly. At the same time, estimates of the impact of individual factors may differ in different studies, which is why there is a need for a generalizing work in ...
Added: April 1, 2024
Korotayev A., Zhdanov A., Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз 2023 Т. 110 № 3 С. 149–171
The article presents a systematic review of the results of testing the political factors of revolutionary destabilization in the works attributed by the authors to the fifth generation of studies of revolutions. It is shown that, according to quantitative cross-national studies conducted to date, the same political factors can have different effects on the likelihood ...
Added: November 13, 2023
Зинькина Ю. В., Korotayev A., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 363–402.
Added: August 17, 2023
Korotayev A., Zhdanov A., Социология власти 2023 Т. 35 № 1 С. 118–159
There are certain grounds for asserting that the fifth generation of revolution theories is being formed in the 21st century. The main distinguishing features of the new generation of theories of revolution, apparently, are the reliance on global databases of revolutionary events, the widespread use of modern methods of quantitative analysis, as well as the ...
Added: August 8, 2023
Егорова А. И., Chepurenko A., Российский журнал менеджмента 2022 Т. 20 № 2 С. 172–197
Goal: this article analyzes the impact of a number of factors of a different nature on the financial and economic “resilience” of the business of Russian small entrepreneurs during the period of external shocks (Pandemic, situation across Ukraine).
Methodology: the empirical base of the papers consist of the data of five waves of small business longitudinal ...
Added: May 28, 2023
Издательство "Учитель", 2021.
В центре внимания данного выпуска мониторинга находятся революционные процессы в афразийской макрозоне нестабильности, простирающейся от Сахеля (то есть африканских стран, расположенных непосредственно к югу от Сахары) через Северную Африку, Ближний и Средний Восток до постсоветской Центральной Азии. С другой стороны, для понимания закономерностей революционных процессов в этой макрозоне требуется уточнить общие закономерности возникновения революционных событий. ...
Added: January 25, 2022
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., Meshcherina K., В кн.: Катализаторы политических переворотов: от акций протеста к смене власти.: М.: ЛЕНАНД, 2021. С. 18–43.
В общественной науке наблюдается рост интереса к такому аспекту, как национальное или государственное строительство в молодых государствах, и проблеме так называемых несостоявшихся или недееспособных государств (failed states). Эти проблемы важно рассматривать не только в современном аспекте, но также в исторической ретроспективе и в широком, мир-системном масштабе. В настоящей статье данные проблемы рассматриваются в разных аспектах, ...
Added: January 14, 2022
ЛЕНАНД, 2021.
В центре внимания данной книги находится афразийская макрозона нестабильности, простирающаяся от Сахеля (т. е. африканских стран, расположенных непосредственно к югу от Сахары) через Северную Африку, Ближний и Средний Восток до постсоветской Центральной Азии. С другой стороны, для понимания закономерностей дестабилизационных процессов в этой макрозоне требуется уточнить общие закономерности возникновения социально-политической нестабильности и революций. Разработка же ...
Added: January 12, 2022
Khokhlov N., Васильев А. М., Беличенко А. А. et al., Международные процессы 2021 Т. 19 № 2 С. 21–49
Our analysis allows us to talk about two waves of the echo of the Arab spring in Western Europe. The first wave was observed in 2011 and was expressed in the explosive growth of mainly peaceful protests. Taking into account the data on the direct impact of the events of the Arab Spring on the ...
Added: August 24, 2021
Korotayev A., Issaev L., Shishkina A., Мировая экономика и международные отношения 2021 Т. 65 № 3 С. 111–119
The first wave of the civil war in Libya, which ended after the assassination of Muammar Qaddafi in the fall of 2011, did not put an end to the civil conflict in the country. It is shown that in many respects the second wave of the civil war in Libya (the beginning of the active ...
Added: March 8, 2021
Медведев И. А., Korotayev A., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисковЧ. 1. Т. 11.: Издательство "Учитель", 2020. С. 436–457.
Added: January 12, 2021
Korotayev A., Aisin M., Zinkina J. V. et al., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисковЧ. 1. Т. 11.: Издательство "Учитель", 2020. С. 200–238.
Added: January 11, 2021
Romanov D., Медведев И. А., Korotayev A., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисковВып. 10.: Издательство "Учитель", 2019. С. 545–556.
В данной работе исследуется дестабилизационный потенциал в двух странах региона Африки южнее Сахеля: в Уганде и Бурунди. Исходя из прогнозов по увеличению количества городской молодежи в общей численности взрослого населения в стране и трех сценариев распространения высшего образования авторы анализируют ряд сценариев интенсивности террористических атак для стран данного региона, а также предлагают некоторые рекомендации, как ...
Added: November 8, 2020