Использование качественного сравнительного анализа для поиска эффективной системы предикторов в логистической регрессии
The focus of this article is the methodological aspect of political activism determinants identifying; specifically variants of handling with categorical predictors which hypothetically explain the level of activism. When using regression for explaining the issue, one may transform such predictors into dummy variables. Such a popular solution makes the model bulky and causes troubles with assessing this model’s quality. Moreover, if a researcher wants to consider interaction effects of the mentioned predictors, the supernumerary combinations of the mentioned predictors values are pended because regression modeling does not take into account the degree of similarity of the mentioned predictors values’ effects. The article authors proposed CHAID as the alternative to the mentioned solution. The research’s aim was i) a comparison of the two mentioned methods leaning on their a priori known properties; ii) arguing CHAID’s some theoretical advantages comparing to logistic regression, iii) parallel implementing the two methods, iv) a comparison of gained empirical results and v) arguing that it is useful to examine multiple interaction effects when developing a predictive model. The raw data were extracted from ESS 2012. The dependent variable was Political activism; the hypothetical predictors belonged to the socio-economic bloc of the Panel.
This paper proposes econometric models built around a dummy-variable production function, aiming to assess future Gazprom’s natural gas production across Tyumen fields. The effort targets feasible accuracy improvements with these projections over the post-crisis period. The dummy variable is introduced into the production function here specifically for 2009 when sharp production declines were reported, to offset the missing author’s history data concerning annual averages for upstream gas capacity utilisation across Gazprom. This econometric analysis indicates that the dummy variable-based production function tended to deliver more accurate gas production outlooks for Gazprom over 2010–2013, against the earlier functions, without the dummy variable included.
The article presents the results of a comparative research study aimed at identifying the conditions for victories and defeats of radical right populist parties in modern Europe. First, the author provides theoretical justification for why such victories and defeats depend on the strategy of both radical right populists and their competitors from the traditional party families along three problematic dimensions — economic, cultural and European. After that she elaborates a hypothesis that the success of a radical right populist party is a result of its convergent strategy along the economic dimension in conjunction with the prevalence of divergent strategies among the mainstream parties along the cultural and European dimensions and tests it on the data of 12 right populist parties using the qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). The empirical results partially confirm the hypothesis, identifying the link between the success of a radical right populist party and its commitment to a convergent economic strategy combined with the divergent strategies of the mainstream parties along the cultural and/or European dimensions. However, the research did not reveal the conditions for the defeat of such parties and did not explain the cases of Great Britain and France, where the radical right populists achieved notable success despite the fact that most identified conditions were absent. This begs further research with a focus on outliers. Such research may expand the list of success/defeat factors for radical right populists, taking into account the distribution of voters’ preferences in various dimensions of the political space.