О чувствительности отраслей и отдельных компаний к состоянию экономической конъюнктуры
Venture capital (VC) provides financial and managerial support for new innovative ideas at the initial stages of commercialization. It has helped to find the market for many radical innovations of 20th century, including personal computer, Internet and genetic engineering.
As a part of market economy venture business was not stable from the very beginning. The periods of rapid growth alternated with deep recessions. However each time VC revived anew as the Phoenix due to its very important function in modern knowledge-based economy.
This report presents an analysis of statistical data that prove the existence of several cycles in VC dynamics in the USA and the Great Britain. The main factors of these cycles formation are discussed. The author proposes two possible scenarios of development of VC market for the first 30 years of the new 21st century. A hypothesis is put forward about the relation between VC cycle's amplitude and a phase of Kondratieff's cycle.
One of the fastest growing areas of bibliometrics application is Foresight studies that are conducted in all the developed economies in the world. National technology Foresight system are formed in Russia at the present moment that creates a new framework for the development of future researches and collaboration between key players in the national innovation system within it which need to systematically update their long-term strategic information. Regarding the new institutional framework of the Foresight system and the world trends in the relevant research environments place of bibliometrics methods for analyzing and forecasting the development of science and technology has been identified as one of the most important. Also specific demands and trends, that will have a significant impact on the entire scientometrics in the near future, are formulated.
The article describes the methodology for identifying and analyzing the economic cycles, which are based on historical spectral approach that combines the advantages of the historical and economic analysis and spectral method of the study of economic series.The proposed method is used to isolate and analyze of (both their own) regular oscillations of economic dynamics inherent in the developed economies, and the vibrations induced by technological and external economic shocks.
The analysis carried out on the basis of data on the dynamics of the post-war U.S. economy as the main recipient world cycles, and economy of Russia from 1861 to 2012 with using the latest research on the reconstruction of its economic dynamism. Finally, conclusions are drawn in relation to the economic policy of the state in the global cyclical development.
Cyclicality of Canadian and Russian industries and Russian companies in terms of the thesis of greater cyclicality of durable goods industries in comparison with nondurable ones is scrutinized by the authors. According to the results the extents of cyclicality of durable and nondurable goods industries in Canada are equal. The theoretical thesis under consideration is correct for the industrial structure of Russia: durable goods industries in Russia are more cyclical than nondurable ones. Moreover, Russian companies also comply with the aforementioned statement. In addition to this the effect of asymmetrical reaction of industries and companies on expansion and contraction happening in the economy is considered in the paper.
The article demonstrates that cyclical fluctuation of industrial outputs (consumer products, equipments, materials and supplies) have important, specific features in Russian and US's economies. The result allows to better understand the formation of business cycles of national economies within their structural peculiarity. Based on statistical analysis of physical industrial output (for Russia relevant indexes were specially calculated by the author) one can conclude that in Russia the dynamics of industrial production are dependent not so much on demand but rather on supply of products. This is explained through weak diversification of Russian economy as well as its high monopolization and exceptional role of imports in consumer and investment expenditures.