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О чувствительности отраслей и отдельных компаний к состоянию экономической конъюнктуры
С. 185–187.
Коновалова М.С., Maksimov A. G.
Cyclicality of Canadian and Russian industries and Russian companies in terms of the thesis of greater cyclicality of durable goods industries in comparison with nondurable ones is scrutinized by the authors. According to the results the extents of cyclicality of durable and nondurable goods industries in Canada are equal. The theoretical thesis under consideration is correct for the industrial structure of Russia: durable goods industries in Russia are more cyclical than nondurable ones. Moreover, Russian companies also comply with the aforementioned statement. In addition to this the effect of asymmetrical reaction of industries and companies on expansion and contraction happening in the economy is considered in the paper.
In book
Воронеж: Воронежский государственный педагогический университет, 2015.
Lola I. S., Asoskov D., ИСИЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ, 2026.
Настоящая работа представляет методику идентификации поворотных точек делового цикла российской экономики на основе дискретного вейвлет-преобразования (ДВП), позволяющая преодолеть недостатки традиционных фильтров (алгоритм Брая – Бошана, фильтр Ходрика – Прескотта, метод Бернса – Митчелла и др.). В условиях структурной трансформации, экзогенных шоков и высокой волатильности деловой конъюнктуры потребность в точной датировке деловых циклов возрастает. На основе ...
Added: September 24, 2026
Zvereva V., Крупкина А. С., Андреев А. В. et al., Деньги и кредит 2026 Т. 85 № 2 С. 3–36
This study develops a methodology for identifying threshold values of Bank of Russia business activity indicators to determine business cycle phases using machine learning classification models. The study relies on monthly monitoring of businesses data from the Bank of Russia for the period from January 2009 to September 2025. The greatest contribution to the model ...
Added: April 14, 2026
Akaev A., Давыдова О. И., Korotayev A., Философия и общество 2025 № 4(117) С. 5–46
This article presents a comprehensive macroeconomic analysis of countries grouped into civilizational clusters based on a cultural-historical approach. The object of the study is the macroeconomic dynamics of states in the context of civilizational differences, and the subject is the model-based assessment and forecast of GDP growth rates for the period up to 2050. The ...
Added: February 24, 2026
Zudina A. A., Экономическая социология 2026 Т. 27 № 1 С. 11–42
This paper represents the first attempt of comprehensive analysis of the impact of the second wave of foreign sanctions on informal employment in the Russian labour market. It focuses on changes in the structure of various types of informal employment in 2022-2023, as well as on an assessment of the possible impact of sanctions on ...
Added: November 13, 2025
Zudina A. A., Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2024 Т. 28 № 4 С. 565–586
This article for the first time addresses the issue of labour flows in the Russian labour market directed to and from the state of informal employment in 2007-2023, allowing to clarify the reaction of informal employment to the deterioration of the macroeconomic context of various types – global financial crisis in 2008-2010, the introduction of ...
Added: December 4, 2024
Smirnov S. V., Kondrashov N. V., Качур А. С., Вопросы экономики 2024 № 2 С. 23–48
The specificity of macroeconomic forecasts is determined not so much by the list of predicted indicators or by mathematical tools used, but by the unavoidable human factor, which often generates great difference between forecasts made by various professionals. In Russian-language literature, this psychological aspect of macroeconomic forecasting has not received any attention; our work is designed to fill this gap. ...
Added: February 8, 2024
Smirnov S. V., Олейник Е. Б., Коваленко С. С., Вопросы экономики 2023 № 10 С. 75–97
In recent decades, predicting turning points of economic cycles (their peaks and troughs) using leading indicators has established itself as a fairly simple, clear and at the same time reliable method. But the world experience has shown that any system of leading indicators requires revision and clarification from time to time. The recent non-economic shocks ...
Added: October 25, 2023
Kosov M., Sigarev A. V., Malashenko G. et al., Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics 2019 Vol. 10 No. 6 P. 1794–1800
Due to the current speed of the changes in all fields and aspects of business activities, the countries that slowly adapt to new realities and pay insufficient attention (preventive attention, in particular) to ideas in the field of science and technology, as well as to mechanisms for bringing them to practical implementation lag behind the ...
Added: September 4, 2021
Smirnov S. V., Вопросы статистики 2020 Т. 27 № 4 С. 53–65
The article provides a brief overview of the background of constructing composite leading indicators (CLI) for Russia; the paper defines key indicators which currently are calculated and published monthly; they can be put in practice to monitor the Russian economy. The underlying methodological approaches are analyzed, along with their advantages and disadvantages. The importance of ...
Added: August 25, 2020
Bogoviz Aleksei V, Varlamov A., Mishchenko V. et al., , in: "Conflict-Free" Socio-Economic Systems: Perspectives and Contradictions.: Bingley: Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2019. Ch. 24 P. 219–225.
The obtained conclusions show opposition of stagnation and sustainable development. Stagnation is absence of economic growth and development, regardless of social and ecological costs of economic activities. Contrary to it, sustainable development means stable economic growth with low social and ecological costs of economic activities. That’s why stagnation of economy is a negative phenomenon. Unlike ...
Added: August 2, 2019
Bogoviz Aleksei V, Skryl T., Kapustyan L. et al., , in: "Conflict-Free" Socio-Economic Systems: Perspectives and Contradictions.: Bingley: Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2019. Ch. 12 P. 111–117.
It is determined that domination of subjective reasons in emergence of economic conflicts makes application of the theory of cycles not applicable to full-scale study of economic conflicts – application of this concept is expedient only as to economic crises that are one of a lot of manifestations of economic conflicts. It is probably that ...
Added: August 2, 2019
Supyan V. B., США и Канада: экономика, политика, культура 2015 № 7 С. 3–25
Статья посвящена анализу принципиальных черт и особенностей экономической модели США и их эволюции в начале XXI века. В ней, в частности, даётся определение понятия «модель экономики страны», подчёркиваются отличия американской модели от экономических моделей других стран. Рассматриваются роль и значение наиболее важных элементов экономической модели США в преодолении кризиса 2008-2009 гг. и в экономическом и ...
Added: November 26, 2018
Klyukin P. N., В кн.: Новая Российская энциклопедияЧ. 2: Токоферолы - Ульские. Т. 16.: М.: Энциклопедия, Инфра-М, 2016. С. 219–225.
The theoretical contribution to economics of two prominent scientists was investigated and described: the first Russian economist with a worldwide reputation, M.I. Tugan-Baranovsky (1865-1919), and the French independent physiocrat and at one time the Comptroller (Minister) of Finance of France Anne Robert Jacques Turgot (1727-1781). ...
Added: October 31, 2018
Smirnov Sergey, , in: Business Cycles in BRICS.: Springer, 2019. Ch. 6 P. 89–119.
In many respects, the historical trajectory of the Russian economy during the Twentieth century has been a terra incognita until now. As for the official statistics, there are at least three important reasons for this. First, many relevant indicators were either not measured, or were kept secret and never published. Second, Russia (as the RSFSR) ...
Added: August 20, 2018
Petronevich A., Billio M., / Series WP/2017 "University Ca' Foscari of Venice, Dept. of Economics Research Paper Series". 2017.
We adopt the Dynamical Influence model from computer science and transform it to study the interaction between business and financial cycles. For this purpose, we merge it with Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model (MS-DFM) which is frequently used in economic cycle analysis. The model suggested in this paper, the Dynamical Influence Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model (DI-MS-FM), ...
Added: October 20, 2017
Sergey V. Smirnov, Nikolay V. Kondrashov, Anna V. Petronevich, Journal of Business Cycle Research 2017 Vol. 13 No. 1 P. 53–73
This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Russian economic cycle from the early 1980s to mid-2015. To detect peaks and troughs, we tested nine monthly indices as a reference series, three methods of seasonal adjustments (X-12-ARIMA, TRAMO/SEATS, and CAMPLET), and three methods for dating cyclical turning points (local min/max, Bry–Boschan method, and Markov-switching model). ...
Added: April 12, 2017
Savitskaya E. V., М.: Вита-Пресс, 2016.
Пособие предназначено для учителей, преподающих экономику по учебнику И.В.Липсица "Экономика" (базовый уровень). Описываемая в пособии методика опирается на системно-деятельностный подход к обучению, при котором у учащихся формируются не только базовые знания по экономике, но и определенный набор предметных и метапредметных умений, личностных характеристик и установок в соответствии с ФГОС среднего (полного) общего образования. Основное место ...
Added: January 21, 2017
Konovalova M.S., Maksimov A.G., Cogent Economics and Finance 2017 Vol. 5 No. 1 P. 1–12
Cyclicality in industries and companies is scrutinized in the paper. Cyclical industry/firm is that which parameters (in particular, value added by industry and economic value added) have high correlation with the parameter reflecting economic cycles (in particular, GNP).
The theoretic approval for the thesis that durable goods industries are more cyclical than nondurable ones is already ...
Added: December 11, 2016