Banksystem und Grundriss des Bankrechts Russlands
In our research, we examine what macroeconomic factors determine and influence the credit cycle. In addition, our study contains four sections with theoretical and empirical parts, in which we describe how to measure credit cycles for developed and developing countries, and then introduce an important measure of the credit gap. Our results show a comparative analysis of credit cycles between different countries with different economic growth, and we have created an econometric model, which shows us the impact of macroeconomic factors according to the credit cycles for developing and developed economies.
The study estimates the impact of collateral determinants, so as collateral requirements, targeted on loan- to-value (LTV ratio), on credit risk of bank corporate loans. The approach presented focused, on the one hand, on tests of the prevalence of so-called the Ex Post and Ex Ante theories of collateral in banking. And the ability of collateral determinants, LTV ratio in particular, as tools of credit risk management to predict and evaluate lenders’ overconfidence, on the other. That is a novelty of collateral controlling and credit risk management in Russian banking.
Features of assets and property rights pledged for bank loans in Russia are also analyzed. The research is based on econometric methods, linear regressions, and binary models. The prevalence of Ex Post theory for collateral has been proved for Russian bank corporate loans. The higher credit risks, the higher banks’ collateral requirements to pledge corporate loans. This evidence corresponds Russian bank experience to international practical overview.
Moreover, banks studied depict strong preferences in collateral types alongside the credit risk management, presenting the importance of financial behavior studies in banking. Empirical results of the research inspire to continue indicating probability-of-default for corporate loans, based on behavioral aspects of banks’ collateral requirements, and lenders’ preference in collateral types and features.
This paper examines what influences Russian households‟ decisions to save and borrow. We use the 2008 data from the 17th round of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS-HSE). Our results show that the determinants of saving and borrowing are not only those suggested by economic theory but also include psychological and sociological considerations: smarter respondents, who are satisfied with their lives and inclined to help other people, are more likely to save. Those who enjoy stable or improving financial conditions and/or are satisfied with them are more likely to save and less likely to borrow. Financial literacy, a factor cited by institutional theory as positive for both saving and borrowing from banks, lost its significance at the onset of the financial crisis. Household income, suggested by economic theory as a basis for choosing a financial strategy, was found to have much less influence on savings and to have a positive influence on borrowing, confirming the rationing theory rather than intertemporal choice theory. Surprisingly, the fear of job loss does not make people save more, contrary to the precautionary motive.