Momentum effect on the Russian stock market. Whether emerging markets are not profitable for Momentum Strategies (WP World Finance & Banking Symposium, Singapore 2014)
The aim of this article is to prove the evidence of cross sectional momentum effect in Russian stock market within the variety of momentum strategy design elements and disclosure of the momentum effect nature.
Our research is devoted to trade strategy’s profits and study of financial anomalies in stocks pricing. We analyze Momentum (and Reversal) strategies construction that is based on historical prices of assets. The main feature of the momentum strategy is that past stocks relative return (higher or lower than mean return or benchmark set) is used for selecting assets in portfolio.
The accent in our paper is made on revealing the nature of momentum and reversal (or contrarian) effects over time periods up to one year through the analysis of two basic determinants of abnormal profits of arbitrage portfolios of different design: cross-sectional variance of mean returns (rational explanation) and time-series predictability of asset returns (irrational explanation according EMH). The analyzed period embraces, from January 2006 to December 2014. Our research of Russian stock market has shown that, considering the choice of portfolio design (temporal windows for selecting stocks for portfolio and investment, and weight of stocks in the portfolio) and stock sample for constructing strategies (the sample should include major companies with liquid stocks) momentum and reversal effects do take place. Momentum profit is demonstrated in short-term strategies (3 to 6 months), while reversal effect is marked for ultra-short (less than a month) and long periods (11–12 months). Profit decomposition shows that the component responsible for rational explanations is statistically significant and its weight prevails in most momentum strategies with investment period not exceeding 9 months.
In this paper, we empirically test the dependence of the Russian stock market on the world stock market, world oil prices and Russian political and economic news during the period 2001–2010. We find that oil prices are not significant after 2006, and the Japan stock index is significant over the whole period, since it is the nearest market index in terms of closing time to the Russian stock index. We find that political news like the Yukos arrests or news on the Georgian war have a short-term impact, since there are many other shocks. These factors confirm the structural instability of the Russian financial market.
The paper presents an analysis of the stocks traded on MICEX from 2007 to 2011. In order to analyze the data, we construct a market graph model. The vertices of the graph represent stocks; the edges represent strong similarity between considered stocks returns. We suggest using the following way to calculate the similarity measure: we calculate the number of the periods when two considered stocks have the positive return simultaneously. Our results show that the market graph model with the suggested similarity measure can be used to describe the stock market dynamics in an effi- cient and concise manner.
We use a Markov chains models for the analysis of Russian stock market. First problem studied in the paper is the multiperiod portfolio optimization. We show that known approaches applied for the Russian stock market produce the phenomena of non stability and propose a new methods in order to smooth it. The second problem addressed in the paper is a structural changes on the Russian stock market after the financial crisis of 2008.We propose a hidden Markov chains model to analyse a structural changes and apply it for the Russian stock market.
The article is devoted to one of the most popular approaches to forecasting market prices - technical analysis. We investigate the effectiveness of methods of technical analysis on the most liquid stocks of the Russian stock market. Derived conclusions about the overall effectiveness of technical analysis and identifies financial assets for which the use of these methods can achieve the best performance of market making operations.