Опережающие индикаторы рецессии: анализ панельных данных стран ОЭСР и России
Пестова А. А.
XIV Апрельская международная научная конференция по проблемам развития экономики и общества: в 4-х книгах. Книга 1
Edited by: Е. Г. Ясин М.: Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2014.
Миронов В. В. Прямые инвестиции: журнал Сбербанка России. 2013. № 6.
Added: Jul 10, 2013
Smirnov S. V., Kondrashov N. V., Petronevich A. Economics. EC. Высшая школа экономики, 2016. No. 122.
This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Russian economic cycle from the early 1980s to mid-2015. To detect peaks and troughs, we tested nine monthly indices as reference series, three methods of seasonal adjustments (X-12-ARIMA, TRAMO/SEATS, and CAMPLET), and four methods for dating cyclical turning points (local min/max, Bry-Boschan, Harding-Pagan, and Markov-Switching model). As these more or less formal methods led to different estimates, any sensible choice was possible only on the grounds of informal considerations. The final set of turning points looks plausible and separates expansions and contractions in an explicable manner, but further discussions are needed to establish a consensus between experts.
Added: Jan 22, 2016
Евгений Гавриленков, Антон Струченевский, Сергей Коныгин и др. Вып. 4-7. М.: Sberbank CIB, 2015.
Added: Aug 12, 2015
Симонова М. Д. В кн.: Методы количественных исследований процессов модернизации экономики и социальной сферы России: Материалы международной научно-практической конференции, посвященной 105-летию РЭУ им. Г.В. Плеханова 15-16 марта 2012. М.: Российский экономический университет имени Г.В. Плеханова, 2012. С. 357-361.
Statistical studies of EU, EU – 15, OECD exports and imports of goods and services time series are conducted under globalization, trends are analysed.
Added: Nov 17, 2013
Меликян А. В. Вестник международных организаций: образование, наука, новая экономика. 2010. № 3. С. 33-45.
Added: Sep 30, 2012
Григорьев Л. М., Иващенко А. С. В кн.: Мировая экономика в начале XXI века. Учебное пособие. М.: Директмедиа Паблишинг, 2013. С. 163-192.
Added: Oct 21, 2015
Российская экономика после присоединения Крыма: новые реалии и перспективы развития. [Текст] : докл. к XVI Апр. меж- дунар. науч. конф. по проблемам развития экономики и общества
Added: Apr 15, 2015
Timofeev D. V. Basic research program. WP BRP. National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015. No. 20.
Russian recession of 2014/2015 began with ruble run and rise of inflation. It is just the opposite of the western-type deflationary slump combined with money hoarding. Does it mean that Russians need different micro-model to describe saving and consumption behavior? This study show that work-horse log-linearized rational SDF with CRRA utility still provides good explanation for Russian consumers. It explains dollarization, domestic equity market avoidance, preference for real estate, and chiefly - wary attitude towards rubles. Expectations derived from the past and interactive preferences lock macro economy in the state of steadfast distrust in ruble, prone to inflation. For a while one should not expect Keynesian-type deflationary cycle in Russia. The next recession is likely to be inflationary, requiring monetary tightening. This reasoning is generalized for other emerging countries. Free-floating currency and inflation targeting do not mean easy way ahead for the country with recent negative inflation experience.
Added: Nov 20, 2015
Smirnov S. V. Economics. EC. Высшая школа экономики, 2014. No. 77.
There is evidence in the economic literature that near cyclical peaks an optimistic bias exists in private expert forecasts of real GDP growth rates. Other evidence concerns differences in the accuracy of GDP forecasts made during expansions and those made during contractions. It has also been hypothesized that a wishful bias may hamper the ability to recognize the beginning of a recession in real-time. We tested consensus forecasts of quarterly GDP growth rates taken from SPFs conducted by PhilFed and found that they may be seen as unbiased only for time horizons j=0,1,2; for greater horizons they are over-optimistic. This over-optimism may also be observed for (j=1, 2) for forecasts made at peaks (at these moments the consensus usually points only to a slowdown of the economy but not to a contraction). Lastly, over-optimism may be observed for nowcasts (j=0) during cyclical contractions, including the first two quarters of a recession (in these cases the reality is usually worse than expected). Taken together, all these facts mean that some aversion to predicting US recessions exists. There are two possible reasons for this: a) experts rely too heavily on extrapolations (then changes in medium-long tendencies would be missed in real time); b) there is a wishful bias in forecasts against predicting recessions (this reluctance may be rooted in psychological factors). We give some arguments in favor of the thesis that the second factor is more important.
Added: Nov 28, 2014
Смирнов С. В. Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики. 2012. № 4. С. 479-513.
Added: Jan 22, 2013