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Форсайт в государственном управлении научно-технологическим развитием в условиях глубокой неопределенности
С. 67–78.
In conditions of deep uncertainty with weak signals and wildcard events, it is becoming increasingly challenging to establish priorities for science and technology development. This context creates new demands on public administration and the governance of science, such as adherence to the principles of cooperation, receptivity to change, flexibility and scientific validity. These criteria correspond to the network configuration of interaction, uniting parties interested in cooperation and finding solutions to development challenges. In this context, Science and Technology Foresight is used as a tool to analyze complex phenomena, considering nonlinear development and determining scientific and technological priorities within the context of shrinking planning horizons and identifying challenges and opportunities.
This article considers the characteristics of effective public governance in dynamically changing conditions, the factors that make S&T Foresight a suitable tool for a proactive approach to decision-making and implementation that takes into account development turbulence, and the strengths and weaknesses of using S&T Foresight in public governance. It also touches upon the problem of the isolation of foresight studies results from governance practice. These results could form the basis of a more in-depth analysis of the specific factors influencing the integration of S&T Foresight into public governance, leading to the development of appropriate recommendations.
In book
Атрощенко Е. А., Исаева М. В., Клунная Е. А., Каранкевич Н. Д., Блохина С. В., Vasilyeva A., Мерсиянова М. В., Малютин М. Р., Горбунова М. А., Измайлова А. М., Ежова М. В. М.: Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2025.
Khestanov R., Социологическое обозрение 2026 Т. 25 № 3 С. 12–35
The article proposes a syntagmatic analysis of three historically constituted regimes for working with the future: linear determination, statistical branching, and loop reconfiguration. A syntagm is understood as an event-operation that exists only in its performance and simultaneously binds material, semiotic, and pragmatic registers. The analysis proceeds not as an intellectual history but as an ...
Added: September 30, 2026
Gribkova D. E., Вопросы государственного и муниципального управления 2026 № 3 С. 151–176
Global challenges, economic security risks, sociodemographic and environmental processes, and accelerating technological development are creating a fundamentally new context for Public Administration that demands knowledge-based decision-making. The growing interest in proactive and predictive governance has led to the active use of science and technology foresight. However, the governance of scientific and technological development still faces ...
Added: September 28, 2026
Veselitskaya N., Malekova D. K., European Journal of Futures Research 2026 Vol. 14 Article 19
Foresight methods are often treated as transferable tools whose selection depends mainly on the object of analysis, the time horizon or the available data. This article argues that such a view is incomplete because foresight methods are embedded in governance settings and perform different institutional functions across them. The article does not claim that the ...
Added: July 22, 2026
Yatskin D., Maibakh O., Sokolov A., Национальный исследовательский университет "Высшая школа экономики", 2025.
Исследование Института статистических исследований и экономики знаний (ИСИЭЗ) НИУ ВШЭ посвящено развитию информационных технологий в России в среднесрочной перспективе (до 2028 года). Фокус сделан
на четырех сценариях, в условиях которых изучено развитие семи основных технологических направлений: искусственный интеллект, интернет вещей, кибербезопасность, высокопроизводительные вычисления, пользовательский опыт, производственные технологии и робототехника, а также информационные системы и приложения. Определены ...
Added: October 13, 2025
Gribkova D. E., Вопросы государственного и муниципального управления 2025 № 3 С. 183–211
Science and technology became key drivers of Japan’s post-war recovery and national development. Japan was the first country to regularly conduct Science & Technology (S&T) Foresight and apply the results to national policy design. This article assesses the role of S&T Foresight in the governance of scientific and technological development.
In the context of changing socio-economic, ...
Added: October 1, 2025
Marina Boykova, Knyazeva H., Salazkin M., Foresight and STI Governance 2023 Vol. 17 No. 4 P. 80–91
The challenges the futures studies face are particularly complex, interconnected, and contradictory, and cannot be resolved using linear approaches. Prognostic science needs tools matching the new contextual complexity, which would allow to capture a much wider range of driving forces, and their potential effects, in a non-linear perspective, to improve the accuracy of forecasts and ...
Added: January 25, 2024
Gurkov I. B., Morley M., / Series WP BRP "Basic research program". 2022. No. 65.
World Investment Report 2020 by UNCTAD identified several possible trajectories of development for many industries, namely re-shoring, regionalization, diversification, and replication. We argue that those trajectories of development may result in changes to prevailing corporate parenting styles and may also lead to the emergence of less common parenting styles. We present a typology of corporate ...
Added: September 21, 2022
Zarochintcev S., Вопросы государственного и муниципального управления 2021 № 3 С. 200–218
Complex nature of modern challenges and threats, turbulence of the geopolitical situation, fi nancial, economic and energy crises, along with natural and man-made disasters carry signifi cant risks to the national security of any state. Th e unexpected intensity of the COVID-19, coupled with other hybrid risks, revealed signifi cant defi ciencies in the national security risk assessment (NSRA) system. Issues ...
Added: June 28, 2022
Repositioning People in Creative Futures: A Method to Create Sound Advice with Exploratory Scenarios
Velasco G., Popper R., Miles I. D., Foresight and STI Governance 2021 Vol. 15 No. 2 P. 25–38
Foresight scenarios are not only useful presentational devices to show that many aspects of the future are open. Scenarios are means for generating advice that helps policymakers initiate actions in the present or near future that will be of long-term significance. Despite the influence that such advice may have on policy decisions, the Foresight literature ...
Added: November 2, 2021
Calof J. L., Foresight 2020 Vol. 20 No. 5/6 P. 563–577
Purpose
Given the importance of competitive intelligence (CI) to the economic performance of firms, understanding whether CI practice is impacted by firm size or by their awareness of CI maybe important when creating programs designed to improve firms’ CI performance. This paper aims to address this by examining the extent to which the CI practices of ...
Added: November 1, 2021
Акаев А. А., Айвазов А. Э., Глазьев С. Ю. et al., Орел: ФГБОУ ВО «ОГУ имени И.С. Тургенева», 2018.
В данном сборнике представлены статьи, подготовленные участниками международной научно-практической конференции Арригиевские чтения по теме: «Формирование новой парадигмы экономического мышления XXI века», которая проходила 21-23 марта 2018 года на базе института эконмики и управления ФГБОУ ВО «Орловский государственный университет при финансовой поддержке Российского фонда фундаментальных исследований (проект №18-010-20019 Г). Все статьи публикуются в авторской редакции. Мнение ...
Added: September 13, 2021
Иванов В., Стратегия России 2019 № 4 С. 5–17
Для цифрового мира, по сути, вообще не важно, кто ты и откуда, он может оказаться построен совсем по другим, даже невообразимым принципам. И не рассыплется. При этом исходный код пишется конкретным автором с конкретными национальными и культурными особенностями, которые невольно или преднамеренно ложатся в основу уже обязательного для всех нового мира, который за одно-два поколения способен у нас на глазах ...
Added: September 12, 2021
Proskuryakova L. N., Kyzyngasheva E., Starodubtseva A., Smart Energy 2021 Vol. 3 Article 100025
The global electric power industry is under pressure due to economic downturn, decreasing demand, lowering energy prices, and growing non-payments. National electric power industries face similar challenges. These challenges pose threats to many other sectors of economy due to ongoing digital transformation. The paper focuses on the Russian electric power industry future development trajectories, as ...
Added: June 7, 2021
Knyazeva H., Foresight and STI Governance 2020 Vol. 14 No. 4 P. 34–45
The modern theory of complex systems changes our view of historical processes, accompanied by uncertainties,
instabilities and ambiguities. The knowledge of this theory allows us to master a system or holistic thinking, and to
understand the laws of functioning and growth of not just structural, but dynamic complexity. Uncertainties and chaotic elements that indicate any state of ...
Added: December 25, 2020
Knyazeva H., Foresight and STI Governance 2020 Vol. 14 No. 4 P. 6–8
The introductory article to the special issue “The Strategic Management in the Context of Dynamic Complexity” substantiates that models and representations of the theory of complex systems are becoming the most relevant science-based background, which allows us to respond to the challenges of our time. The increasing complexity of social and economic development processes, accompanied ...
Added: December 25, 2020
Miles I. D., Foresight and STI Governance 2020 Vol. 14 No. 1 P. 6–27
The tobacco industry worldwide has annual revenues of hundreds of billions of dollars, and annual smoking-associated death rates in the millions. Electronic cigarettes designed as a less harmful alternative to traditional tobacco products allow users to inhale nicotine, without consuming the products of burning tobacco, thus significantly lowering health risks. These and similar innovative solutions ...
Added: June 16, 2020
Makarov S., ЭКО 2020 Т. 50 № 5 С. 175–192
В последние 10 лет регионы РФ показывают повышенную активность в выстраивании индивидуальных стратегий экономического развития. Одним из методов выявления долгосрочных конкурентоспособных преимуществ является форсайт, а практическим инструментом его реализации на уровне региона – подготовка долгосрочной региональной стратегии. В условиях сильных различий субъектов федеративного государства именно региональный уровень имеет ряд преимуществ для результативного применения форсайта и ...
Added: May 4, 2020
Sargsyan G., Kofanov Y. N., Sotnikova S., В кн.: Информационные технологии и математическое моделирование систем 2019.: Центр информационных технологий в проектировании РАН, 2019. С. 116–118.
В данной работе предлагается для повышения эффективности работы панелей экспертов на стадии технического проектирования навигационных систем подобрать компьютерные программы и провести всестороннее моделирование. Таким образом, эксперты получают полную информацию о физических процессах, в данном случае тепловых процессах, в будущей навигационной системе. С учётом этой информации они принимают решения о применении тех или других передовых технологий, ...
Added: December 22, 2019
Proskuryakova L. N., Ermolenko G., Renewable Energy 2019 Vol. 143 P. 1670–1686
Today the global energy industry is undergoing major changes shifting towards the green growth and circular economy solutions. The paper offers the outcomes of the foresight study of the Russian renewable energy sector and focuses on three areas: converting solar energy into electricity; converting wind energy into electricity; and converting biomass into thermal energy and ...
Added: May 28, 2019
Loginova I., Kuzminov I., Khabirova E., Биотехнология 2018 Т. 34 № 5 С. 7–11
The results of the analysis of current and emerging technological shifts in Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC) at the global and national levels are presented in the article. The authors discuss the future of the Russian AIC through the prism of unlikely catastrophic events (jokers). The risks of those events should be taken into consideration when forming ...
Added: February 6, 2019
Kuzminov I., Bakhtin P. D., Khabirova E. et al., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2018. No. 82.
This paper contributes to the conceptualisation and operationalisation of the “technology trend” discussion in the scope of the Technology Foresight paradigm. It proposes a consistent logical approach to analysing technology trends and increase predictive potential of futures studies. The approach integrates Big Data analysis into the Foresight studies’ toolset by means of applying text mining, ...
Added: October 3, 2018