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Regular version of the site

Book chapter

Systemic Foresight Methodology

P. 83-117.

Based on the ideas of systems thinking, the Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) proposes a framework for designing and implementing Foresight activities. This framework recognises the complexities that emerge due to multifaceted interplays between the Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological, Political and Value (STEEPV) systems. To conducting Foresight systemically, we need to undertake a set of ‘systemic’ thought experiments, in which systems (e.g. human and social systems, industrial/sectoral systems, and innovation systems) are understood and modelled, and hopefully intervened in, for a successful change programme. These experiments are conducted in a series of iterative phases that we label (1) Intelligence (scoping, surveying and scanning phase) (2) Imagination (creative and diverging phase), (3) Integration (ordering and converging phase), (4) Interpretation (strategy phase), (5) Intervention (action phase), and (6) Impact (evaluation phase); (7) an Interaction phase (participation) goes on throughout the activity. The paper describes each of the phases and proposes a set of quantitative and qualitative methods, which can be combined to form research, policy, technology, and innovation paths. The ideas discussed in the light of two Systemic Foresight cases, dealing with Higher Education and Renewable Energy sectors. SFM was used to provide a methodological orientation for these the Foresight exercises, where a variety of methods were selected and combined in line with the objectives of and available resources for the Foresight exercises.