Изменение климата и его воздействие на экосистемы, население и хозяйство российской части Алтае-Саянского экорегиона. Оценочный доклад
Report contains extensive information on an array of thematic issues: current and predicted climate change, prognosis for change in plant communities and water resources, and impact of climate change on population, economy and services provided by natural ecosystems in the Altai-Sayan Ecoregion (ASE). It is not easy to identify the human-induced changes in global climate and their regional peculiarities against the backgrounds of natural climate variability and local impacts. This report will serve as a guide of future action aimed at studying climate change impacts and planning adaptation measures when the adverse impacts of climate change reveal themselves and/or when sufficient data is collected and reliable regional models are developed to allow climate change prediction.
Global climate change entails both threats and new opportunities for social and economic development of the Altai-Sayan Ecoregion. Taking into account the scale of climate change forecasted for the ASE, the importance of Altai-Sayan as one of the world’s biodiversity hotspots as well as an important role assigned to the region in strategic plans of Russia’s economic development, the need to develop regional measures of adaptation to both negative and positive impacts of climate change raises no doubts. In particular, climate change is referred to as a new determinant of development and a security challenge to Russia and its regions in such strategic documents as: the RF Environmental Doctrine (2002), the RF Long-Term Social and Economic Development Concept for the period to 2020 (2008), the RF Forest Complex Development Strategy for the period to 2020 (2008), the RF National Security Strategy for the period to 2020 (2009), the RF Climate Doctrine (2009), the Energy Strategy of Russia for the period to 2030 (2009), the RF Food Safety Doctrine (2010) and the Strategy of Social and Economic Development of Siberia for the period to 2020 (2010).