Прикладные модели эконометрики
The article presents the results of foreign trade block modelling, as an integrated part of the Input-Output tool, including sub-blocks with calculations of imports and exports. Factor demand functions for imports are described, as well as demand functions for Russian non-energy exports. Method of transition from export forecast estimates compiled in groups of customs classifier to national commodity classifier is described.
Questions of differentiation of the population on a level of incomes in Republic Mary El are considered. Parameters of a variation and structure of the basic monetary incomes are analyses. Classification of administrative areas on the parameters describing incomes of the population is lead. The analysis of territorial distinctions of the population on levels of incomes is given. For more in-depth study of interrelation of the parameters describing differentiation of incomes of the population of Republic, on everyone allocated cluster are constructed regression models of a degree of influence of the parameters reflecting age structure of the population on a level of monthly average wages, pensions and social payments.
On the basis of the data set for Claude Monet's pictures, sold on large auctions worldwide from April, 1997 till December, 2009, it is estimated hedonic regression model. We model the works price on the base of the number of its characteristics, such as: the size of a picture, techniques of execution and a material of a basis, an auction house, presence of signature/date, participation of work in exhibitions and a mention in the specialized editions, lot numbers and experience of the artist by the moment of the creation of the work. The estimated regression is significant and explains 76 % of a dispersion of the prices. The received estimations allows to reveal essential price deviations for the sold works from «fair» market, «to translate» qualitative distinctions between pictures in quantitative in terms of an expected market price.
The paper studies a problem of optimal insurer’s choice of a risk-sharing policy in a dynamic risk model, so-called Cramer-Lundberg process, over infinite time interval. Additional constraints are imposed on residual risks of insureds: on mean value or with probability one. An optimal control problem of minimizing a functional of the form of variation coefficient is solved. We show that: in the first case the optimum is achieved at stop loss insurance policies, in the second case the optimal insurance is a combination of stop loss and deductible policies. It is proved that the obtained results can be easily applied to problems with other optimization criteria: maximization of long-run utility and minimization of probability of a deviation from mean trajectory.