АКТУАРНЫЕ РАСЧЕТЫ в 2 ч. Часть 2. Учебник и практикум для бакалавриата и магистратуры
Investment income is one of the most important source of income for an insurance company, but since the investment process implies handling serious risks, the investment policy of global insurance faces extremely high requierements. The objective of the study was to investigate the risk of ‘ruin’ and to evaluate the probability that an insurer will become insolvent through fitting the Wilkie stochastic investment model (A.D.Wilkie, 1986; 1995) on the indicators influencing the performance of insurance companies in Russian Federation. The paper describes how these models can be applied taking into account the features of the Russian economy and the insurance market.
Insurance companies and pension funds are affected by many different kinds of risks. In life insurance there are two main risks: the demographic risk and the investment risk. The demographic risk can be dividing into insurance risk and longevity risk. The first risk associated with the random deviation of the number of deaths from its expected value, the second deriving from the improvement in mortality rates. Numbers of actuarial stochastic models have been developed to analyse the mortality changes. This work focuses on Lee-Carter, Cairns-Blake-Dowd models and their extended versions with the inclusion of the cohort effect. We construct 6 stochastic actuarial models on Russian data at the first time. For modelling we use age-specific mortality rates and the probability of dying between 1959 and 2014 for the population aged 20 to 88 years from the Human Mortality Database. We consider age range from 20 to 88. Using the "StMoMo" package in the R software environment, code was written for modelling and predicting mortality with the help of actuarial stochastic models. For comparison of models, information criteria (Bayesian information criterion and Akaike criterion) were used, as well as sensitivity to changing the time range.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.