Dynamics of Disasters—Key Concepts, Models, Algorithms, and Insights
Approaches to modeling a tsunami of meteoric origin are discussed. A brief overview of the asteroid and meteorite danger to the Earth is given. Formulas assessing the parameters of the tsunami caused by an asteroid entering the water are derived. The results of the numerical simulation of the effect of the angle of entry of the body into water on the characteristics of the resulting waves in the near field are given. The model based on the Navier–Stokes equations for multiphase flows with a free surface is used in calculations. The dimensions of perturbation are studied and the regularities of changes in the parameters of the source are discovered.
We consider a model of regions’ ranking in terms of their vulnerability to natural and technological disasters. Regions are different in terms of their resistance to different disasters, by their population, by the distribution of the sources of potential disasters, etc. We consider different models of a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach taking into account the risks of the implementation of different measures, their cost as well as the heterogeneity of regions. The numerical examples demonstrate the application of the constructed model for the regions of Russian Federation.