Eastern Europe Economic Update - Georgia and Bulgaria: Coping with Challenges
In our research, we examine what macroeconomic factors determine and influence the credit cycle. In addition, our study contains four sections with theoretical and empirical parts, in which we describe how to measure credit cycles for developed and developing countries, and then introduce an important measure of the credit gap. Our results show a comparative analysis of credit cycles between different countries with different economic growth, and we have created an econometric model, which shows us the impact of macroeconomic factors according to the credit cycles for developing and developed economies.
Despite the impressive economic growth in Russia between 1999 and 2007, there is a fear that Russia may suffer the Dutch disease, which predicts that a country with large natural resource rents may experience a de-industrialisation and a lower long term economic growth. In this paper we study if there are any symptoms of the Dutch disease in Russia. Using a variety of Rosstat publications and the CHELEM database, we analyse the trends in production, wages and employment in the Russian manufacturing industries, and we study the behaviour of Russian imports and exports. We find that, while Russia exhibits some symptoms of the Dutch disease, e.g. the real appreciation of the rouble, the rise in real wages, the decrease in employment in manufacturing industries and the development of the services sector, the manufacturing production nonetheless increased, contradicting the theory of the Dutch disease. These trends can be explained by the gains in productivity and the recovery after the disorganisation in the 1990s, by new market opportunities for Russian products in the European Union and in CIS countries, by a growing Chinese demand for some products and by a booming internal market. Finally, investments in many manufacturing industries were largely encouraged, whereas those in the energy sector were strongly regulated, which contributed to the economic diversification.
I argue that the rather unfavorable conclusions of the three papers in the session on "Coordination and Tradeoffs" might not be as bad as they seem. In particular, I dwell on challenges facing the central bank using an interest rate that is different from the risk-free rate in its Taylor rule, and show that proper redefinition of the intercept and the slope of the rule allows avoidance of inflationary bias and preserves the stability of equilibrium.
The historical changes in Central and Eastern Europe demanded suitable paths for the transition from centrally planned to market based economies. The lack of relevant experience added to the challenge, giving rise to the incalculable risks of implementing untested policies. By focusing on monetary policy, trade, and convergence, this volume addresses some of the most urgent economic policy issues in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe and beyond.
The author traces the analysis evolution of the monetary shocks effects on the economy, exploring the key approaches to modeling of the monetary transmission mechanism. The article emphasizes the necessity of the monetary transmission mechanism modification in the conditions of current financial crisis: the active role reflection of the financial intermediaries, accounting of the development degrees of institutional capacity in the economy.
This paper analyzes a stylized model of an export-oriented economy. It investigates the impact of macroeconomic policies on the dynamics of the exchange rate, inflation, output and stabilization fund and consider different forms of strategic interaction between the government and the central bank. It is shown that the effective interaction of fiscal and monetary policies is possible under Stackelberg interaction with the government as leader and under cooperation.
We consider certain spaces of functions on the circle, which naturally appear in harmonic analysis, and superposition operators on these spaces. We study the following question: which functions have the property that each their superposition with a homeomorphism of the circle belongs to a given space? We also study the multidimensional case.
We consider the spaces of functions on the m-dimensional torus, whose Fourier transform is p -summable. We obtain estimates for the norms of the exponential functions deformed by a C1 -smooth phase. The results generalize to the multidimensional case the one-dimensional results obtained by the author earlier in “Quantitative estimates in the Beurling—Helson theorem”, Sbornik: Mathematics, 201:12 (2010), 1811 – 1836.
We consider the spaces of function on the circle whose Fourier transform is p-summable. We obtain estimates for the norms of exponential functions deformed by a C1 -smooth phase.