Book
Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков
The approach to analyse innovation risks and their factors is proposed. This approach gives opportunities to take into account a sufficiently complete set of factors and risks of innovation activity and obtain their component-wise evaluation. It based on а five-stage procedure. At the first stage, the system of innovation activity factors is determined. This system is divided into two subsystems. One of them includes factors that are directly related to the innovation activity. The other subsystem encompasses the events arising from framework conditions of innovation activity. Further, on the next stages, the factors that have a negative impact on innovation activity are identified; statistic data completeness is provided for factors measurement; the ranking procedure takes places. The final stage leads to the construction of a map of risks and risk factors. The mapping of risks and risk factors allows determining the innovation bottlenecks. It allows to elaborate policy measures (at both state and enterprise levels) mitigating, and compensating for, risks of innovation activity and to organize these measures into a complex system.
Prediction of the duration of a repair and maintenance project of a gas transport system is an important part of planning activities. There exist numerous sources of uncertainties that may result in time overruns possibly leading to multiple negative consequences. Our experience in planning this work suggests that accepting the stochastic nature of the project duration is a constructive step towards the preparedness to contingencies and defining penalties for repair companies. To support this approach, one needs to construct probability distributions of the durations of the projects. To address the issue of the scarcity of observed data, we suggest using a bootstrap resampling procedure. Gram-Charlier functions and order statistics are employed to approximate the distributions. It is demonstrated how to derive them for a separate repair project and a larger project consisting of a number of concurrently running subprojects. Following this, guidance is provided on how to decide about what duration should define the deadline for completion of the whole work. A simple example is provided.
The chapter offers three analytical cases put together as a result of non-formalized face-to-face interviews. it is shown how different manufacturing enterprises - mature chemical firm within the vertically intergated holding, new machine-building plant which serve the demand of resource sector and the relatively new company with the foreign owner - undertake technological innovations. The barriers, motivations and risks which influence the decisions to innovate are descrived. In the end, we show how innovations affect the competitiveness.