Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков
The approach to analyse innovation risks and their factors is proposed. This approach gives opportunities to take into account a sufficiently complete set of factors and risks of innovation activity and obtain their component-wise evaluation. It based on а five-stage procedure. At the first stage, the system of innovation activity factors is determined. This system is divided into two subsystems. One of them includes factors that are directly related to the innovation activity. The other subsystem encompasses the events arising from framework conditions of innovation activity. Further, on the next stages, the factors that have a negative impact on innovation activity are identified; statistic data completeness is provided for factors measurement; the ranking procedure takes places. The final stage leads to the construction of a map of risks and risk factors. The mapping of risks and risk factors allows determining the innovation bottlenecks. It allows to elaborate policy measures (at both state and enterprise levels) mitigating, and compensating for, risks of innovation activity and to organize these measures into a complex system.
Prediction of the duration of a repair and maintenance project of a gas transport system is an important part of planning activities. There exist numerous sources of uncertainties that may result in time overruns possibly leading to multiple negative consequences. Our experience in planning this work suggests that accepting the stochastic nature of the project duration is a constructive step towards the preparedness to contingencies and defining penalties for repair companies. To support this approach, one needs to construct probability distributions of the durations of the projects. To address the issue of the scarcity of observed data, we suggest using a bootstrap resampling procedure. Gram-Charlier functions and order statistics are employed to approximate the distributions. It is demonstrated how to derive them for a separate repair project and a larger project consisting of a number of concurrently running subprojects. Following this, guidance is provided on how to decide about what duration should define the deadline for completion of the whole work. A simple example is provided.
The article presents a comparative analysis of the nature and content of the concepts of risk and business reputation of the organization. The factors that may affect the process of digitalization of the economy in Russia are identified. Defined the inter-relationship digitalization of the economy and the business reputation of industrial companies. The refined definition of risk suggests considering risk as an economic phenomenon, which is an integral element of all socio-economic processes that occur in the organization, and is able to lead the system out of balance and, consequently, either improve its performance, or lead to undesirable losses, or destroy. The complete concept of business reputation is that it defines it as a stable representation in the minds of contractors of the organization (consumers, government agencies, suppliers, commercial banks) about the good faith of the fulfillment of its obligations, a high level of quality of the products of the efficiency of the implementation of business contracts. The interrelation between increase in business reputation and growth of competitiveness of the industrial organizations is shown. The proposed quantitative index for assessing the level of goodwill by the dynamics of the revealed violations of the organizations in the industry. The dynamics of this indicator of industrial organizations of the Russian Federation in 2011-2017 is investigated. Such directions of reducing the risk of business reputation of the industrial organization of the Russian Federation as the development of tools for motivating personnel, the intensification of the use of professional psychological assistance for employees and management of industrial companies, the movement of their business reputation in social networks, the improvement of PR-companies of industrial enterprises, the development of self-regulatory organizations of the industry and the intensification of their activities in the management of the process of ensuring business reputation. The necessity of formation of independent qualified ratings of business reputation of domestic industrial companies formed in the context of sub-sectors of a particular sector of the economy and regions of the Russian Federation is shown.
This paper considers the key opportunities of upward residential mobility Petersburg families have and the major risks they face. It analyzes such core factors influencing Petersburgers’ opportunities of strategic planning and, in the long run, the improvement of their living facilities as the situation in the labor market as well as individual professional and employment horizons. It also demonstrates how members of Petersburg families interpret the situations of uncertainty shaped by the general instability of the labor market as well as their personal labor precarity, narrate the risks associated with the procurement of lodgings, especially through residential mortgage, and attempt to cope with these risks.