Economic Update - Georgia, Turkey and Bulgaria: Sensitive to External Shocks
> Georgia. Georgia's $16 bln economy saw strong annual growth in 2010-12 of around 6-7%, but in 2013 growth slowed to 3.2%, which is still good but not enough for an economy with a GDP per capita of around $3,600. Indeed, over the year, Georgia - which depends heavily on capital inflows - failed to utilize its competitive advantage of lower unit labor costs than in other countries in the region, such as Turkey and Bulgaria. > Turkey. The Turkish economy performed well in 1H14 as industrial output rose 3.8% y-o-y (down from 5.3% y-o-y in 5m14). GDP climbed 4.3% y-o-y in 1Q14, and we estimate 2Q14 to show GDP growth just below 4.0%. We expect 3.7% for 2014 as a whole, which is a bit stronger than we expected early in the year. > Bulgaria. Similar to some other smaller economies in the region, Bulgaria benefited from a recovery in the Eurozone that was characterized by ECB President Mario Draghi on August 7 as "moderate and uneven." Bulgarian GDP picked up to around 1.4% y-o-y in 1H14 (1.2% in 1Q14 and 1.6% in 2Q14). Given that Bulgaria's currency is pegged to the euro, the country was unable to extract benefits from this recovery to the same extent as some other countries, such as Turkey, Hungary or Romania, whose monetary policy and exchange rates are more independent. In 2H14, Bulgaria will face additional pressure from potentially slower growth in the EU as policy makers in the West and Russia continue experiments with sanctions.
This volume examines the complex international system of the twenty first century from a variety of perspectives. Proceeding from critical theoretical perspectives and incorporating case studies, the chapters focus on broad trends as well as micro-realities of a Post-Westphalian international system. The process of transformation and change of the international system has been an ongoing cumulative process. Many forces including conflict, technological innovation, and communication have contributed to the creation of a transnational world with political, economic, and social implications for all societies. Transnationalism functions both as an integrative factor and one which exposes the existing and the newly emerging divisions between societies and cultures and between nations and states. The chapters in this volume demonstrate that re-thinking fundamental assumptions as well as theoretical and methodological premises is central to understanding the dynamics of interdependence.
A possible application of the author’s method of differentiation of clusters belonging to JPEG files from other clusters on the digital media for expanding of existing data recovery methods is described in the work. The decrease in the number of operations needed to reach the correct result is estimated. A way of using described method for automated improvement of data carving results is considered.
Saving and creating jobs in a recession and the current situation in the economic crisis, in part due to the sanctions imposed by the Russian Federation - is a priority for every state. Powered by article analysis of the structural changes on the example of the federal city of St. Petersburg reflects the dynamics of the number of employees by main activity. Analysis of data of the number of employees on key sectors of the economy is an indicator of both development and current state of the real sector of the Russian economy.
Sanctions and the future of EU-Russian relations
The number of conflicts in the world is increasing, as well as their intensity and fierceness. We see the trend of unfolding spiral of violence in the world and thus there is a pressing need to assess the underlying reasons of it. Challenges to a secure development of the world stem from political, economic and social issues that have long been ignored or have not been effectively dealt with by both policymakers and researchers. Likewise, both academic and policy responses to the unfolding global grievances and local ferocities are still one-sided in many cases, which causes ever more fighting and insurgence. This project aims to fill in existing lacunas in the area of understanding issues underlying the current global conflict trend, many of which have long been in the shadow of research and policy-analysis internationally. This book project sheds light on complicated and long-term issues, such as revival of authoritarianism, crucial transformation of peacekeeping concept, rising security and strategic issues of small states, as well as security challenges presented by\to new international grouping such as BRICS. An intentionally diverse scope of this project allows to bring along such issues as Islamophobia and the prospects for Christian-Muslim dialogue, the scope, essence and consequences of international sanctions to manage international disputes, as well as the issue of a failed state. The geographical scope of this project ranges from North Korea to Somalia, and from Russia to Brazil. This project aims to educate all interested in the underlying fundamental long-term reasons of current political conflicts worldwide and to provoke debate on many issues that are still considered “second priority level”, though they provide even stronger basis for the current conflict-prone situation in the world. This book project aims to satisfy the need of in-depth analysis and expertise on issues of international sanctions, revival of authoritarianism, failure of state, formation of new international organizations, changing essence of peacekeeping in conflict-prone areas and globally, new contexts for Muslim-Christian dialogue and it successes and failures, as well as lesser-known contexts of strategic choices of small states.
The authors: Francesco Giumelli, Mitchell Belfer, Hanna Shelest, Piskunova Natalia, Gracian Cimek, Yefimova Anna, Bekkin Renat, Solkin Victor, Sarah Rial, Esther Sule.
The article raises questions of influence of the western sanctions on the market of real estate in Russia. The most vulnerable segments of the market of real estate are allocated and negative consequences of sanctions for all branches are analyzed. The opinions of experts are given. Alternative options of development of segments of the market are formulated and possible anti-recessionary scenarios are offered.
The results of the experimental attempts of elaboration of the previously proposed method for identifying clusters belonging to JPEG files are described. Type II errors rates for different file formats are estimated. The possible ways of their improvement for some file formats are offered.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.