Развитие населения и демографическая политика. Памяти А.Я. Кваши
Adverse demographic trends, adding up to what deserves to be called a demographic crisis, have been apparent in Russia for some time. Th is crisis is bound to have negative impact on qualitative and quantitative features of the country’s human capital, and on potential for development of that capital. Russia has been aff ected by natural decrease of population since 1992: shrinkage has totaled 12.3 million persons over 16 years. Th is phenomenon has been partly compensated by immigration (5.7 million persons), but by the beginning of 2008 the Russian population had declined to 142 million from 148.6 million at the beginning of 1993, a reduction of 6.6 million persons.
In 2006 in his Message to the Russian Federal Assembly, President Vladimir Putin called demography “the most acute problem of modern Russia”. His speech focused attention of the government and society on problems of demography and led to some practical measures for amelioration of the demographic situation. Vladimir Putin and the current President Dmitry Medvedev have emphasized that Russia has so far only taken the first steps and that eff orts to overcome the demographic crisis need to be developed further. Many diffi cult tasks remain to be solved along the way, and the start of a new phase of demographic development, with many highly unfavorable aspects, makes their solution even more complicated. Th ere is no reason to expect that the demographic crisis in Russia, which is the outcome of negative inertia accumulated over decades, will be quickly overcome. Many demographic illnesses have no tried and tested cures. Some of these illnesses are common to other urbanized, industrial and post-industrial countries, have roots in modern ways of life, and are highly intractable for governments, even for a government that pursues a vigorous demographic policy. The capacities and limitations of such policy need to be given a sober and realistic assessment. We cannot change everything, which we do not like. So policy needs to include not only eff orts at changing adverse trends, but also measures for adapting to trends, which cannot be changed.
Regional variation of all features of mortality is quite significant. Being noted for many decades The North-Ost gradient of increased mortality rate continues its trend. In a time despite essential regional variation of mortality the difference in the orientation of its dynamic is not significant at all. An important condition for development of measures to ensure a decrease of mortality rate is information on social and demographic factors.
The paper is based on materials from two projects carried out by the Center for Migration Studies (CMS, Moscow), which have been realized with support from the UN Women: “Opportunities and Problems of Social Integration of Labor Migrants from Central Asian Countries in Russia” (the sample size is 400 respondents; the query regions are Moscow and St. Petersburg) and “Migrant Women from CIS Coun tries in Russia” (the sample size is 1169 respondents; the query regions are Moscow and Moscow oblast, Samara oblast, St. Petersburg and Leningrad oblast, and Krasnodar krai). The materials of two focus groups with migrant women from Central Asia in Russia, which were organized in 2010, have also been used.
This book is about the politics and public policies of population change across the globe. It is our attempt to make interdisciplinary progress at the intersection of demography and political science in order to fully understand the breadth and pace of demographic change worldwide. This book grew out of an idea that we tossed around at a workshop in Gothenburg in autumn 2015. In 2012, we had edited a volume on the comparative politics of population ageing in advanced industrial democracies in an attempt to make some advances in the fields of political sociology, comparative politics, comparative political economy and welfare state research (“Ageing Populations in Post-industrial Democracies: Comparative Studies of Policies and Politics, Routledge”, Routledge). In late summer 2016, we met in Odense to sketch out the first ideas for this book and identify suitable experts from across the globe. Since we had been working mostly on the OECD world ourselves, this was a steep learning experience. In 2017, we approached the Käte Hamburger Centre for Global Cooperation Research at the University of Duisburg-Essen with the question whether they could fund an international conference to bring together such a global group of experts. Luckily, they were able to do so, leading to a conference that took place on 23–24 November 2017 in Duisburg. For this volume, we wanted to adopt a wide scope across three dimensions. First, we wanted not only to include population ageing as the dominant driver of change in the age composition of modern societies, but to also add an in-depth analysis of migration as a fundamental factor of population change. Second, we wanted to expand the perspective beyond advanced industrial democracies to cover all major macro-regions of the world in order to develop a fuller picture of the dynamics of the politics of population change. Third, we wanted to broaden the time period under consideration, from 1990 to today and into the near future, up to 2040.
This ambitious open-access book draws the big picture of how population change interplays with politics across the world from 1990 to 2040. Leading social scientists from a wide range of disciplines discuss, for the first time, all major political and policy aspects of population change as they play out differently in each major world region: North and South America; sub-Saharan Africa and the MENA region; Western and East Central Europe; Russia, Belarus and Ukraine; East Asia; Southeast Asia; subcontinental India, Pakistan and Bangladesh; Australia and New Zealand. These macro-regional analyses are completed by cross-cutting global analyses of migration, religion and poverty, and age profiles and intra-state conflicts. From all angles, the book shows how strongly contextualized the political management and the political consequences of population change are. While long-term population ageing and short-term migration fluctuations present structural conditions, political actors play a key role in (mis-)managing, manipulating and (under-)planning population change, which in turn determines how citizens in different groups react.
BACKGROUND The long-term historical decline in infant mortality has been accompanied by increasing concentration of infant deaths at the earliest stages of infancy. In the mid-1960s Coale and Demeny developed formulas describing the dependency of the average age of death in infancy on the level of infant mortality, based on data obtained up to that time. OBJECTIVE In the more developed countries a steady rise in average age of infant death began in the mid-1960s. This paper documents this phenomenon and offers alternative formulas for calculation of the average age of death, taking into account the new mortality trends. METHODS Standard statistical methodologies and a specially developed method are applied to the linked individual birth and infant death datasets available from the US National Center for Health Statistics and the initial (raw) numbers of deaths from the Human Mortality Database. RESULTS It is demonstrated that the trend of decline in the average age of infant death becomes interrupted when the infant mortality rate attains a level around 10 per 1000, and modifications of the Coale-Demeny formulas for practical application to contemporary low levels of mortality are offered.
vCONCLUSIONS The average age of death in infancy is an important characteristic of infant mortality, although it does not influence the magnitude of life expectancy. That the increase in average age of death in infancy is connected with medical advances is proposed as a possible explanation.
The book «Population development and population policy» (series «Population studies») is dedicated to the famous Russian demographer, Dr. Sc. (Economics), MSU emeritus professor A.Y. Kvasha. The authors are colleagues and students of A.Y. Kvasha. The first part includes biography of A.Y. Kvasha, list of his main scientific papers and PhD theses carried out under his supervision. The second part is devoted to reminiscences of his disciples and colleagues. The third part contains articles – their themes are associated with A.Y. Kvasha: demographic analysis and projections, population policy, economic, social and military demography. For researchers, post-doctoral fellows, students and anyone interested in population problems
The government Concept fails to take adequate account of fundamental structural changes in family relationships, the microconomy of households and fertility in the medium and long terms. But growing complexity of types and forms of unions, and of the structural characteristics of families and households where children are born, is an undeniable fact that must be studied and considered when social and demographic policy decisions are made. There is every reason to predict further increase in the contribution of informal unions and second unions to fertility. These structural changes have had limited impact on the overall Russian total fertility rate to date, but they may be decisive in the future. The successes of recent years must be reinforced by consistent development and improvement of the government’s family policy taking account of economic, social and demographic realities, which have grown more complex and diverse. The only policy, which stands a chance of success, is one, which broadens freedom of choice for individuals of both genders and families, and enhances their ability to give birth and bring up children in the context of today’s economic, social and demographic diversity.
The chapter contains a review of labour migration trends and migration policies in the area of the Commonwealth of independend states.
Several approaches to the concept of fatherhood present in Western sociological tradition are analyzed and compared: biological determinism, social constructivism and biosocial theory. The problematics of fatherhood and men’s parental practices is marginalized in modern Russian social research devoted to family and this fact makes the traditional inequality in family relations, when the father’s role is considered secondary compared to that of mother, even stronger. However, in Western critical men’s studies several stages can be outlined: the development of “sex roles” paradigm (biological determinism), the emergence of the hegemonic masculinity concept, inter-disciplinary stage (biosocial theory). According to the approach of biological determinism, the role of a father is that of the patriarch, he continues the family line and serves as a model for his ascendants. Social constructivism looks into man’s functions in the family from the point of view of masculine pressure and establishing hegemony over a woman and children. Biosocial theory aims to unite the biological determinacy of fatherhood with social, cultural and personal context. It is shown that these approaches are directly connected with the level of the society development, marriage and family perceptions, the level of egality of gender order.
We address the external effects on public sector efficiency measures acquired using Data Envelopment Analysis. We use the health care system in Russian regions in 2011 to evaluate modern approaches to accounting for external effects. We propose a promising method of correcting DEA efficiency measures. Despite the multiple advantages DEA offers, the usage of this approach carries with it a number of methodological difficulties. Accounting for multiple factors of efficiency calls for more complex methods, among which the most promising are DMU clustering and calculating local production possibility frontiers. Using regression models for estimate correction requires further study due to possible systematic errors during estimation. A mixture of data correction and DMU clustering together with multi-stage DEA seems most promising at the moment. Analyzing several stages of transforming society’s resources into social welfare will allow for picking out the weak points in a state agency’s work.