The lagged structure of dynamic demand function for mortgage loans in Russia
This paper presents the demand-supply model for the Russian residential mortgage market based on the 2008-2012 aggregated data. The econometric estimation is addressed to the autocorrelation and the endogeneity problems, which leads to inconsistent estimates of parameters. Vector autoregression was chosen in order to simultaneously model the dynamic demand and supply system. Robust estimates of demand function evidenced that decision on application for mortgage loan is lagged and depends not only on the current macroeconomic situation, but also on the shocks of previous periods.
This conference proceeding includes selected full papers from the 11th EBES Conference – Ekaterinburg. We have accepted papers among resubmitted full papers after the conference ended. In this proceeding you will find a snapshot of topics that are presented in the conference. As expected, our conference has been an intellectual hub for academic discussion for our colleagues in the areas of economics, finance, and business. Participants found an excellent opportunity for presenting new research, exchanging information and discussing current issues. We believe that this conference proceeding and our future conferences will improve further the development of knowledge in our fields.
The paper presents the structural model of decision-making process on the residential mortgage market. We empirically estimates key drivers of mortgage borrowing, underwriting, and default process by jointly using market-level monthly data and loan-level data from regional branch of Agency of Home Mortgage Lending (AHML). The multistep estimation procedure allows correcting for sample selection bias and endogeneity and provides consistent parameter estimates. Obtained results shows that risk preferences are changing during the time and AHML borrowers are relatively high risky.
This paper models household demand for childcare and mothers' labour force participation in Romania. The model estimates the effects of the price of childcare, mothers' wages, and household characteristics on household behaviour with respect to childcare and maternal employment. We find that both the maternal decision to become employed and the decision to use out-of-home care are sensitive to the price of childcare. A decrease in the price of care can increase the number of working mothers and thus can reduce poverty in some households. We also find that the potential market wage of the mother has a significant positive effect on the decision to purchase market care and on the decision to engage in paid employment. The level of household non-wage income has little effect on maternal employment and on the demand for childcare.
The mortgage crisis that started in the U.S. in 2007 and lasted until 2009 was characterized by an unusually large number of defaults on the subprime mortgage market. As a result, it developed into a global economic recession and placed the stability of the world banking system in jeopardy. Therefore, the issues of credit risk modeling showed the shortcomings of the current credit risk practice. Truncation, or partial observability, and simultaneous equations bias causes sample selection bias. As a result, parameter estimates are biased and inconsistent. Firstly, we provide an overview of current approaches in the mortgage literature to control for the sample selection bias correction, such as the Heckman model and bivariate probit model with selection. Secondly, a review of the most significant mortgage studies discussing this problem is introduced. Specifically, different structural models, specific datasets and empirical results are regarded. In addition, we discuss such key credit risk determinants as borrower characteristics, terms of the mortgage contract, mortgage characteristics, and macroeconomic conditions. Finally, we conclude the discussion with possible research questions.
This article deals with the influence of different factors on the RTSI in the period from March 2007 to August 2009. The period is further subdivided into three subperiods − pre-crisis, high oil prices and time of crisis ones. The stationarity testing, the Granger causality analysis, the analysis of cointegration, the impulse response functions and the variance decomposition let us get the information on the degree of oil price impact, the S&P-500 and FTSE-100 stock indices one and the «investors' fear gauge» index VIX influence on the RTSI. The time series cointegration analysis demonstrates the presence of the cointegration relations. The results of the research can be applied in making scenario forecasts based on the middle-run and long-run oil prices.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.