Анализ субъективных данных в политических исследованиях: от экспертных оценок до искусственного интеллекта

Политическая наука. 2024. № 2. С. 37–54.

Stukal D.

Empirical research in Comparative Politics and International Relations is often built not only on statistical data, but also on expert evaluation data. However, the methods of data analysis employed in this case often fail to account for the differences between statistical and expert evaluation data, and disregard the extra uncertainty in the latter. This article focuses the state-of-the-art methods for collecting and processing expert evaluation data in political science research, as well as open questions in this area. The article presents Bayesian data analysis as the most natural approach to analyzing subjective data and focuses on the differences between Bayesian and classical approaches. Then the article focuses on the methods for obtaining expert evaluations through prior elicitation for further use in Bayesian analysis. These approaches are illustrated using examples from the research project "Political Atlas of the Modern World 2.0". The next section discusses the possibility of replacing expert evaluation data with crowdcoding, i.e. the procedures for annotating or coding qualitative features by non-experts based on formalized instructions. The article cites both successful examples of crowdcoding usage in empirical research and potential challenges for its integration into research in Comparative Politics and International Relations. Finally, the author addresses the issues of integrating expert evaluation data, on the one hand, and artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies, on the other. We highlight their compatibility in the framework of Bayesian data analysis.

Keywords: искусственный интеллект, экспертные оценки, methods, байесовская статистика, expert evaluation, методы, данные, Bayesian statistics, data, Политический атлас современного мира 2.0, artificial intelligence, Political Atlas of the Modern World 2.0