Метод прогнозирования вероятностей актуализации последствий принятых решений в условиях неопределенности
A new method to predict the probabilities of future events that are consequences of the subject, are presented. The method is based on combining the two types of forecasts – forecasted events using statistical data predictions for previous periods, as well as subjective, using expert estimates, using new information. Shows that an objective forecast is the ultimate objective probabilities of future events whose values do not depend on the initial priors and are its eigenvector of the matrix reliability predictions, the expert in charge of its eigenvalue, equaled one. An example of applying the method is given.
Venture capital (VC) provides financial and managerial support for new innovative ideas at the initial stages of commercialization. It has helped to find the market for many radical innovations of 20th century, including personal computer, Internet and genetic engineering.
As a part of market economy venture business was not stable from the very beginning. The periods of rapid growth alternated with deep recessions. However each time VC revived anew as the Phoenix due to its very important function in modern knowledge-based economy.
This report presents an analysis of statistical data that prove the existence of several cycles in VC dynamics in the USA and the Great Britain. The main factors of these cycles formation are discussed. The author proposes two possible scenarios of development of VC market for the first 30 years of the new 21st century. A hypothesis is put forward about the relation between VC cycle's amplitude and a phase of Kondratieff's cycle.
1. Description of the problem. Instrumental analysis makes it possible to find the arguments of adjudication on the bounders and structure of corpus delicti, its correlation to criminal and filling-up legislation. 2. Initial theses. Corpus delicti is regarded as that expressed in criminal law doctrine result of reorganization of orders of criminal law into other practically necessary form. That happens in the process of theory and practical experience accumulation. The construction of corpus delicti is transformed for practical needs, textually expressed system of features, regulated by criminal law and characterizing deeds as a crime of a definite type. Correlation of construction of corpus delicti with law and doctrine. Corpus delicti, its algorithm. Transition from law regulations to corpus delicti can be done: 1) prog-nostically; 2) within constant analysis of law; 3) in the process of law application. 3. Stages of instrumental building of corpus delicti: prognostic, doctrinal, law applicatory. Instrumental approach to corpus delicti includes within each stage: 1) based on criminal law decision of classification of corpus delicti and its borders; 2) objective description of a factual model; 3) acception of meaning correlated with legal notions and constructions; 4) choice of the construction of the corpus delicti and disposal of characteristics; 5) verification of legitimacy, necessity and adequacy of foundation. 4. Instrumental analysis of disputable questions of understanding and application of constructions of corpus delicti. A. Functions and purposes of application of construction of corpus delicti. Functions of corpus delicti: a) modeling; b) communicative; c) identificatory; d) technological. B. Contents of corpus delicti. Contents of corpus delicti as it is traditionally regarded does not correspond to indications of crime, does not characterize features of social danger; sign of danger of penalty also does go into corpus delicti. Two variants are proposed for the discussion: widening of the borders of corpus delicti by means of introduction of signs of social danger and signs, defining individualization of penalty and to limitate corpus delicti by characteristic of criminally punished act, separating it from contents of guilt and contents of social danger. C. Structure of corpus delicti. There are two problems: division of elements of crime seems to be extremely harsh and inadequate - it is expedient to include signs of special and time limits of act, causal links, crossing signs of objective and subjective sides, first of all consequences and an object of crime, into the structure of corpus delicti. Forms of committing a criminally punished act is a crime commitment in complicity, ideal system, not finished crime.
This is the first book on the U.S. presidential election system to analyze the basic principles underlying the design of the existing system and those at the heart of competing proposals for improving the system. The book discusses how the use of some election rules embedded in the U.S. Constitution and in the Presidential Succession Act may cause skewed or weird election outcomes and election stalemates. The book argues that the act may not cover some rare though possible situations which the Twentieth Amendment authorizes Congress to address. Also, the book questions the constitutionality of the National Popular Vote Plan to introduce a direct popular presidential election de facto, without amending the Constitution, and addresses the plan’s “Achilles’ Heel.” In particular, the book shows that the plan may violate the Equal Protection Clause from the Fourteenth Amendment of the Constitution. Numerical examples are provided to show that the counterintuitive claims of the NPV originators and proponents that the plan will encourage presidential candidates to “chase” every vote in every state do not have any grounds. Finally, the book proposes a plan for improving the election system by combining at the national level the “one state, one vote” principle – embedded in the Constitution – and the “one person, one vote” principle. Under this plan no state loses its current Electoral College benefits while all the states gain more attention of presidential candidates.
The present manual is written on the basis of the course on inductive logic which is delivered in English to philosophy students of National Research University Higher School of Economics. The manual describes the main approaches to constructing inductive logic; it clarifies its key notions and rules, and it formulates its major problems. This introductory text can be useful for all readers who are interested in contemporary inductive logic.
In this article we describe a system allowing companies to organize an efficient inventory management with 40 suppliers of different products. The system consists of four modules, each of which can be improved: demand planning, inventory management, procurement planning and KPI reporting. Described system was implemented in a real company, specializing on perishable products totaling over 600 SKUs. The system helped the company to increase its turnover by 7% while keeping the same level of services.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.