Военная сила государства-посредника и урегулирование вооружённых конфликтов

Международные процессы. 2023. Т. 21. № 4. С. 6–40.

Мустафина В. В., Maltsev A.

The study of mediation in resolving armed conflicts remains a promising area of research in international relations. However, contemporary IR research provides a limited understanding of the role of the mediator's military power in the cessation of hostilities and the implementation of peace agreements. We have suggested that asymmetry and parity can characterize an intermediary's superiority in military power (or lack thereof). To assess the relevant characteristics of military power, we propose to use a generalized indicator of military asymmetry created through a simple comparative analysis. Within the framework of the methodology presented in the article, various metrics of the military power of the parties to the conflict and the mediators were compared in pairs with each other according to the criterion of threshold values (quartiles), indicating the presence of asymmetry of military power or its absence (parity of military power). Various thresholds of sufficient skewness, ranging from 20% to 50%, were then also used to aggregate the binary scores into a single score. As a result of the study, using the assessment of a series of regression models, it was possible to establish that the aggregate superiority of the mediating state in military force over the warring parties to the conflict statistically significantly contributes to both the immediate cessation of hostilities and the successful establishment of peace in the long term. Control variables in the form of peace agreement features also influence the peace process's positive outcome. Key among them are increasing the transparency of political decision-making procedures and the involvement of various social groups in power processes at various levels. The results of this study demonstrate the interconnectedness of military force and successful mediation and also indicate the complementarity of military and negotiation components in the context of state-led mediation. Thus, this study proposes to transform the idea of mediation that currently dominates international relations theory.

Keywords: медиация, armed conflict, военная сила, паритет, military power, conflict-mediation strategy, Вооруженный конфликт