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Modeling of the need for parking space in the districts of Moscow metropolis by using multivariate methods
The growth of metropolis cities and consequently the number of vehicles cruising within their boundaries create a permanent problem of dissatisfaction with the amount of parking space and its over-occupancy. The results of continuous observation of parking lots in Moscow and data on registered cars in the city districts was the initial basis for this study. The objectives of this study were: to obtain descriptive statistics of the indicators of parking space available in Moscow; to identify the factors of influence on the basis of the analysis of cause-and-effect relations between the explanatory indicators of parking space and parking space occupancy; to analyze and verify the effectiveness of predictive models for determining the parking occupancy. An observation method was used to obtain the data. The data was processed by IBM SPSS Statistics 20 statistical program to obtain descriptive statistics indicators of parking space in Moscow, the analysis of cause-and-effect relations and subsequent multivariate modeling using regression analysis; logit regression; discriminant analysis; “classification trees” (decision tree). For the subsequent processing, the received data on observations of parking space of Moscow was assumed in this paper including: a list of parking spaces with indication of city district for each parking lot, parking ring reference, number of parking spaces, number of parked cars, number of cars parked with violations, position relative to the street and road network (roadside, SRN), parking tariff, method of placing (parking or storage). Parking occupancy exceeds 90% in 50 districts. The average value is 14.46 thousand parking spaces and 3.60 thousand storage spaces. The results clearly show the possibility of applying the methods of multivariate statistics, logit regression and “classification trees”. Both models allow for using the explanatory variables “proportion of parking lots with violations” and “number of parking spaces in the street and road network” to analyze the impact on parking lot occupancy. Also, the descriptive statistics analysis revealed that when the number and proportion of parking lots with violations are 2 times higher on average in the districts with over-occupied parking lots versus the districts where the parking lot occupancy is not so high, and the number of paid parking lots is over 10 times less. The increase in the proportion of parking spaces with violations ranging from 0 to 0.2% entails a sharp increase in parking space occupancy (up to 90%), while a further increase in the proportion of parking spaces with violations does not entail a significant increase in the parking occupancy.