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Volatility transmission in global financial markets
Journal of Empirical Finance. 2015. P. 3–18.
This paper considers the transmission of volatility in global foreign exchange, equity and bond markets. Using a multivariate GARCH framework which includes measures of realised volatility as explanatory variables, significant volatility and news spillovers are found to occur on the same trading day between Japan, Europe, and the United States. All markets exhibit significant degrees of asymmetry in terms of the transmission of volatility associated with good and bad news. There are also strong links between diffusive volatilities in all three markets, whereas jump activity is only important within the equity markets. The results of this paper deepen our understanding of how news and volatility are propagated through global financial markets.
М.: Московский Политех, 2026.
Основной целью конференции является освещение проблем, связанных с внедрением технологий искусственного интеллекта в управление городским хозяйством города Москвы. Участниками были представлены инновационные решения для оптимизации использования ресурсов и городской инфраструктуры. Особое внимание было уделено решению задач прогнозирования и аналитического моделирования для повышения эффективности работы городских систем.
Тезисы докладов содержат разностороннее исследование теоретических и практических вопросов развития ...
Added: September 16, 2026
Abdullaev A., Sivaev S., Regional Research of Russia 2026 Vol. 16 No. 3 P. 518–530
The article examines the specific features of implementing regional programs of targeted social support for housing and communal services payments in Russia. The aim of the study is to identify differences between the federal subjects in key parameters of the program, targeting and coverage of households with housing subsidies, as well as in the results of ...
Added: September 16, 2026
Gokhberg L., Abdrakhmanova G., Kutsenko E. et al., Вопросы статистики 2026 Т. 33 № 4 С. 5–20
This article examines the methodological and practical issues associated with the transition to the new edition of the All-Russian Classifier of Economic Activities (OKVED) – OKVED3. The relevance of the study stems from the need to reflect contemporary structural changes in the economy, related to the transformation of the existing economic activities and emergence of ...
Added: September 15, 2026
Makarov I. A., Россия в глобальной политике 2026 Т. 24 № 4 (140) С. 164–182
Три с половиной года остаётся до 2030-го – окончания срока реализации Целей устойчивого развития (ЦУР) – главной международной инициативы, устанавливающей долгосрочные ориентиры для будущего человечества. Уже очевидно, что она провалилась: преодоление бедности, решение экологических проблем и построение инклюзивного и справедливого общества остались красивой мечтой. Кто-то может воспринимать ЦУР как памятник человеческой наивности. Но надо понимать, что эта ...
Added: September 14, 2026
Fedorova E., Ledyaeva S., Stepanov V., International Review of Economics and Finance 2026
This study investigates the influence of low-quality information, specifically fake news, on short
term stock returns, contributing to the discourse on signal theory and behavioral economics.
Employing a machine learning approach, the authors developed a robust fake news dataset from
publicly available sources. Sentiment analysis was conducted using a FinBERT model fine-tuned
for stock market contexts, alongside extensive dataset ...
Added: September 12, 2026
Карпова Д. А., Sizova I., Gordin V. E., Креативные индустрии 2026 Т. 2 № 2 С. 10–31
This article examines the musealisation of industrial heritage and its role in regional and corporate branding. The relevance of this study stems from deindustrialisation processes, the growth of industrial tourism, and the need to preserve historical memory, which is particularly important in the context of Russian realities—the lack of a legal definition of the concept ...
Added: September 9, 2026
Veselova L. S., Морозова В. С., Дарчиева А. А., Управленец 2026 Vol. 17 No. 4 P. 66–78
На фоне развивающихся торгово-экономических отношений между Россией и Китаем российские десерт- ные бренды получают новые возможности для выхода на китайский рынок. Однако их присутствие ограничено преи- мущественно приграничными регионами, а продвижение сдерживается недостаточной адаптацией к социокультурным особенностям китайских потребителей. Статья посвящена разработке практических рекомендаций по формированию стратегии адаптации российских десертных брендов к специфике китайского рынка. ...
Added: September 9, 2026
Kilinc-Ata N., Warong M. M., SN Business & Economics 2026 Vol. 6 Article 326(2026)
Green transitions are widely expected to attract cleaner capital and accelerate decarbonization; however, emerging-economy evidence increasingly challenges this assumption. This study examines the dynamic relationship between energy transition indicators and capital inflows in BRICS+ economies over the period 1996–2022, explicitly testing the “Green Haven” hypothesis under conditions of global uncertainty. Unlike much of the existing ...
Added: September 9, 2026
Warong M. M., International Journal of Diplomacy and Economy 2026
This study conducted in Indonesia between 2000 and 2023, demonstrates a complex, non-linear interplay between the economic environment and the emergence of clean energy start-ups. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Markov Switching models, the research shows that start-up formation coincides with periods of lower GDP growth, suggesting that innovation is often spurred by necessity. Two ...
Added: September 9, 2026
Nikita I. Lysenok, International Journal of Computer Information Systems and Industrial Management Applications 2026 Vol. 18 No. 17s P. 533–549
This paper asks which families of volatility forecasting models create economic value in active trading, and through which integration channel that value is transmitted. Seven models drawn from four families — econometric (GJR-GARCH, HAR-J), gradient boosting (XGBoost, LightGBM), recurrent neural networks (LSTM, GRU) and a hybrid combining HAR-J with boosting — are compared on the ...
Added: August 18, 2026
Lysenok N., Фундаментальная и прикладная математика 2026 Т. 26 № 3 С. 33–42
This study examines the impact of realized volatility forecasts on the performance of active trading strategies in the Russian equity market. Using a sample of 17 liquid stocks over the period 2014–2026, a hybrid forecasting model is developed that combines HAR-J with gradient boosting; its superiority over the baseline HAR-J specification is confirmed by the ...
Added: April 17, 2026
Teterin M., Экономическая политика 2025 Т. 20 № 4 С. 82–117
Bitcoin, Ether, Litecoin and XRP are among the largest cryptocurrencies and together have a market capitalization that constitutes a substantial portion of the digital asset market. At the same time, the cryptocurrency market differs from that of traditional financial assets because it has greater price volatility, which makes constructing more accurate forecasts of daily volatility ...
Added: September 2, 2025
Teterin M., Peresetsky A., Applied Econometrics 2025 Vol. 77 P. 74–90
Bitcoin and Ethereum are the two world’s largest cryptocurrencies. Their market capitalizations have recently peaked, making them more attractive to portfolio investors. As the cryptocurrency market is known for its high volatility nature, government institutions are also interested in this segment of the financial market for more comprehensive regulation. Volatility forecasting is a crucial part ...
Added: April 22, 2025
Teterin M., Peresetsky A., The Journal of the New Economic Association 2024 Vol. 4 P. 118–135
Since the introduction of Bitcoin in 2008, the size of the cryptocurrency market is becoming increasingly important for investors. Thus, the forecast of cryptocurrency price volatility is of particular interest to portfolio investors, as they are interested in accurately estimating the standard deviation of their portfolios to calculate the Value-at- Risk (VaR) as a risk ...
Added: January 21, 2025
Ibragimov R., Pedersen R. S., Skrobotov A., Journal of Financial Econometrics (Соединенное Королевство Великобритании и Северной Ирландии) 2024 Vol. 22 No. 4 P. 1075–1097
We present novel, robust methods for inference on market (non-)efficiency, volatility clustering, and nonlinear dependence in financial return series. In contrast to existing methodology, our proposed methods are robust against nonlinear dynamics and tail-heaviness of returns. Specifically, our methods only rely on return processes being stationary and weakly dependent (mixing) with finite moments of a ...
Added: November 14, 2024
Manevich V., Lobachevskii Journal of Mathematics 2024 Vol. 45 No. 3 P. 1194–1206
Added: September 5, 2024
Juri Trifonov, Potanin B., International Review of Financial Analysis 2024 Vol. 91 Article 102941
We proposed a new method (GARCH-M-GJR-LEV) that captures the asymmetry in the variance and return equations. The development of the model is encouraged by the stylized fact that investors demand a higher risk premium during ‘‘bad’’ volatility periods rather than ‘‘good’’ ones. To study the properties of the obtained estimators, we conducted simulated data analysis, ...
Added: October 8, 2023
Аганин А. Д., Manevich V., Peresetsky A. et al., Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2023 Т. 27 № 1 С. 49–77
The article compares GARСH and HAR models for 1 day ahead forecasting performance of the realized volatility of financial series. As an example, the cryptocurrency with the largest capitalization, Bitcoin, was chosen. Its realized volatility is calculated from intraday (24 hours) data, using the closing values of five-minute trading intervals. The paper proposes a method ...
Added: March 13, 2023
Juri Trifonov, Bogdan Potanin, HSE Economic Journal 2022 Vol. 26 No. 4 P. 623–646
This study raises the problem of modeling conditional volatility under the random shocks’ normality assumption violation. To obtain more accurate estimates of GARCH process parameters and conditional volatilities, we propose two semi-nonparametric GARCH models. The implementation of the proposed methods is based on an adaptation of the [Gallant, Nychka, 1987] semi-nonparametric method to the family ...
Added: December 6, 2022
Juri Trifonov, Potanin B., / Series "Working Papers". 2022.
We proposed the new method (GARCH-M-LEV) that allows capturing the asymmetry both in the variance and return equations. The development of the model is encouraged by the stylized fact that investors demand a higher risk premium during ”bad” volatility periods rather than ”good” ones. To study the properties of the obtained estimators, we conducted a ...
Added: November 22, 2022
В. А. Маневич, А. А. Пересецкий, П. В. Погорелова, Прикладная эконометрика 2022 Т. 65 № 1 С. 65–76
In the last ten years, cryptocurrencies have developed rapidly, of which bitcoin has the largest capital‐ ization. With the development of the cryptocurrency market, more and more investors include bitcoin in their asset portfolio. In this regard, the question of the relationship between the volatility of the cryp‐ tocurrency market and the stock market is ...
Added: June 8, 2022
Potanin B., Trifonov Y., Прикладная эконометрика 2021 Т. 63 С. 76–90
This study applies various modifications of the GARCH-M process to model oil prices considering both the expectations of the investors and the risk premium. Futures contracts prices and volatility are used as a proxy for investors’ expectations and risk premium correspondingly. The advantage of the proposed approach is that the risk premium is modeled without ...
Added: September 22, 2021
Костырка А. В., Malakhov D., Прикладная эконометрика 2021 Т. 61 С. 110–139
In this article, two popular tests for structural breaks are considered for return volatilities: the ICSS algorithm employing the AIT test, and the least-squares (LS) estimator. We show that the AIT test is sensitive to many features of the time series, and the use of asymptotic critical values is not always justified. The LS method ...
Added: April 20, 2021
Pogorelova P., Peresetsky A., Прикладная эконометрика 2020 Т. 57 С. 53–71
In this paper, the Kalman linear filter method is used to decompose non‐synchronous observations of the realized volatility of financial indices (NIKKEI 225, FTSE 100, S&P 500) into unobservable global and local components. It is shown that the volatility of the New York S&P 500 index is a global component, while the Tokyo NIKKEI 225 ...
Added: August 26, 2020