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Метод обнаружения структурного сдвига в модели авторегрессионной условной гетероскедастичности: случай распределения Стьюдента
Математическое моделирование. 2023. Т. 35. № 1. С. 51–58.
We consider two methods of structural break detection in a piecewise generalized model of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. The first method is based on Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics and is called KS-method. The second one is based on the cumulative sums and is called KL-method. In this paper, we compare the KS- and KL-methods under the assumption of Student conditional distribution of random errors. The results of our Monte Carlo experiments were as follows: the KL-method lost to the KS-method both in terms of the average probability of first type error and in terms of the average power structural break detection.
Language:
Russian
IEEE, 2026.
Proceedings of the X Scientific School "Dynamics of Complex Networks and their Applications"
(DCNA'2026) contain papers of reports of scientists and specialists in the field of intelligent technologies,
engineering education, research and design of complex networks.
DCNA'2026 was held from 10 to 12 September 2026 in Moscow, Russia, as a part of the International
Forum on Artificial Intelligence and ...
Added: October 26, 2026
Maddalena L., Yildiz B., Del Vecchio Blanco F. et al., Scientific data 2026 P. 1–20
We addressed the task of chemical characterization of the aerosol emitted by heated tobacco products (HTPs) and of the smoke emitted by conventional/commercial cigarettes, usually adopted as a reference. Emphasis was placed on quantifying constituents for enabling the identification of novel compounds through targeted and untargeted analyses, and the evaluation of reductions in toxicant exposure under ...
Added: October 26, 2026
Starostin A., Veselova A., International Journal of Service Science, Management, Engineering, and Technology 2026 Vol. 17 No. 1 P. 1–28
This article challenges the prevailing view that customer experience in online retail is shaped primarily at the digital interface. Instead, the authors investigate whether physical, interpersonal service encounters at third-party pickup points carry greater weight. Using the partial least squares structural equation modeling to evaluate 18,023 marketplace customers, they analyzed five sequential journey stages to ...
Added: October 24, 2026
Flamarion M. V., Pelinovsky E., Wave Motion 2027 Vol. 148 Article 103867
We consider the interaction of two solitary waves in the modified Benjamin–Bona–Mahony
(mBBM) equation in a regime where a small parameter measures the departure from the classical
modified Korteweg–de Vries (mKdV) equation. A regular perturbation method is used to
analyze the modification of the two-soliton wave field induced by the weak non-integrability of
the mBBM equation. We show that, ...
Added: October 23, 2026
Obsie E. Y., Zhan Y., Liu Y., Engineering Research Express 2026 Article 7
Maintaining plant health is crucial for crop quality, food security, and agricultural productivity. Although deep learning methods have shown strong potential for species, disease, and severity classification, most existing approaches tackle these tasks separately, failing to exploit shared representations and interdependencies among them. Furthermore, the variability of disease symptoms, such as subtle differences in size, ...
Added: October 22, 2026
М.: Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2026.
В сборнике представлены отобранные оргкомитетом труды участников 17-й Международной научно-практической конференции студентов и аспирантов «Статистические методы анализа экономики и общества» из России, Армении, Беларуси и Китая, представляющих 27 вузов из 16 городов: Москва, Владивосток, Ереван, Йошкар-Ола, Минск, Новосибирск, Оренбург, Ростов-на-Дону, Санкт-Петербург, Саранск, Саратов, Севастополь, Уфа, Шахты, Шэньчжэнь, Электросталь.
Исследования посвящены вопросам статистической методологии, применению математико-статистических и ...
Added: October 21, 2026
Москвитин О. А., Финансовые рынки и банки 2026 № 9 С. 730–732
Статья посвящена проблеме применения специальных финансово-экономических знаний при рассмотрении дел о картельных соглашениях. Автор исходит из того, что российская правоприменительная практика по делам о картелях исторически опирается преимущественно на поведенческие и цифровые «следы» сговора, тогда как экономический анализ зачастую играет вспомогательную роль. На основе анализа отечественного и зарубежного опыта обосновывается тезис о необходимости разграничения двух ...
Added: October 21, 2026
Gazman V. D., Вестник Московского университета. Серия 6: Экономика 2026 Т. 61 № 4 С. 145–162
This article examines the theoretical and practical dimensions of carbon taxation. It assesses the extent to which the existing tax mechanism regulates CO2 emissions and whether tax revenues cover the damage caused by those emissions. The advantages and disadvantages of emissions trading systems and carbon taxes are analyzed. The article reviews the scholarly debate involving ...
Added: October 21, 2026
Kulagina E., Slykhova K., Lechenko E. et al., BRICS Journal of Economics 2026 Vol. 7 No. 4 P. 1–46
This study explores the relationship between subjective well-being (SWB) and entrepreneurial intention (EI) among university students in Russia, where entrepreneurial engagement remains relatively low. It emphasizes the role of internal psychological drivers, such as SWB, willingness to take risks and entrepreneurial self-efficacy, rather than focusing solely on external factors. Drawing on the Theory of Planned ...
Added: October 20, 2026
Lev Pyatko, Sergey Aksenov, Regular and Chaotic Dynamics 2026 Vol. 31 No. 5 P. 794–813
In the circular restricted three-body problem, families of periodic and quasi-periodic orbits exist in the vicinity of the libration points and are of significant interest for practical applications. This work presents a neural network-based algorithm for orbit construction and station-keeping, applicable to both periodic and quasi-periodic orbits near collinear libration points. The method employs a ...
Added: October 19, 2026
Vorontsova T., М.: Академия, 2025.
The textbook has been prepared in accordance with the requirements of the federal state educational standards for secondary vocational education and is intended for studying the professional modules “Information Security in Information and Telecommunication Systems and Networks Using Software and Hardware‑Software Tools, Including Cryptographic Protection Tools” and “Information Security in Automated Systems Using Software and ...
Added: October 19, 2026
Ksenia V. Rozhkova, Sergey Yu. Roshchin, Natalya K. Yemelina, Population and Economics 2026 Vol. 10 No. 3 P. 61–81
Increasing female representation in technical majors, traditionally associated with high earnings, is recognised as a mechanism for promoting gender equality in the labour market. However, if women quit STEM soon after graduation, increasing their proportion in relevant disciplines will not help reduce the gender wage gap. This paper provides new evidence of the ‘leaky pipeline’ ...
Added: October 19, 2026
Lola I. S., Ostapkovich G. V., Asoskov D. et al., ИСИЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ, 2026.
Аналитический обзор деловых тенденций в сфере услуг в III квартале 2026 г. подготовлен Центром конъюнктурных исследований ИСИЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ. В его основу положены ежеквартальные конъюнктурные опросы руководителей организаций сферы услуг, проводимые Федеральной службой государственной статистики (Росстат). Это распространенный и действенный в международной практике статистических служб и исследовательских организаций источник информации о тенденциях циклического характера, а также метод аппроксимации ...
Added: October 19, 2026
Mozias P., Социальные и гуманитарные науки. Отечественная и зарубежная литература. Серия 9: Востоковедение и африканистика 2025 № 4 С. 145–178
Industrial policy has gained momentum over the past 15 years in both developed and developing countries. It is now seen as a tool not only to support economic growth and cope with unemployment but also to accelerate the digitalization of economies and the “green” transition. However, there is no consensus among experts regarding the optimal ...
Added: November 15, 2025
Fayzulin M., Journal of Applied Economic Research 2025 Т. 24 № 3 С. 1023–1064
Studying market efficiency during periods of systemic shocks is an important and challenging task. This paper examines the transformation of the Russian financial market in the context of the structural shift that occurred in 2022.
The aim of the study is to analyze changes in investor behavior and fractional characteristics among different market segments using multifractal ...
Added: August 2, 2025
Furmanov K. K., Turovets J., Проблемы прогнозирования 2024 № 5 С. 128–140
В статье представлены результаты оценки влияния санкций, введенных против Российской Федерации в 2022 г., на объемы выпуска обрабатывающей промышленности. Внешние ограничения затронули преобладающую часть сегментов производственной деятельности, но по-разному. Выделено шесть групп секторов в зависимости от прогнозных оценок эффекта санкций – от крайне негативного до умеренно положительного влияния. Большинство секторов испытало значительное негативное воздействие, включая ...
Added: November 15, 2024
Simachev Y. V., Fedyunina A., Kuzyk M. et al., М.: Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2024.
В докладе, подготовленном Центром исследований структурной политики НИУ ВШЭ, представлена комплексная картина всех известных на сегодняшний день структурных эффектов международных санкций. Проанализирован накопленный разными странами опыт адаптации к санкционным ограничениям, в том числе их промышленная и научно-технологическая политика. Освещается роль мягкой силы в преодолении международных ограничений, учитывая ее специфику в развивающихся и подсанкционных экономиках. Выделены особенности протекционистских ...
Added: April 27, 2024
Tsatsenko N., В кн.: Труды III Гранберговской конференции: Новосибирск, 11–13 октября 2023 г.: Сборник докладов Всероссийской конференции с международным участием, посвященной памяти академика А.Г. Гранберга «Пространственный анализ социально-экономических систем: история и современность».: Институт экономики и организации промышленного производства СО РАН, 2023. С. 75–80.
This paper examines a variety of theoretical approaches to the relationship between the phenomenon of Dutch disease and structural shifts in the resource-rich economy. The mechanism of the learning by doing effect in the context of the Dutch Disease phenomenon are considered. Firstly, a brief description of the Dutch disease phenomenon itself and its two ...
Added: April 24, 2024
Lukianchenko P., Zotov G., Doklady Mathematics 2023 P. 0
Added: March 16, 2024
D. A. Borzykh, A. A. Yazykov, Mathematical Models and Computer Simulations 2023 Vol. 15 No. 4 P. 654–659
Two methods of structural break detection in a piecewise generalized model of autoregressive
conditional heteroscedasticity are considered. The first method is based on Kolmogorov–
Smirnov statistics and is called the KS method. The second one is based on the cumulative sums and
is called the KL method. In this paper, the KS and KL methods are compared under ...
Added: October 15, 2023
Potapov A., Kurbangaleev M. Z., Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2023 Т. 27 № 2 С. 196–219
При определении маржинальных требований для производных финансовых инструментов на бирже используются статистические модели оценки риска. Данные модели могут использовать грубые упрощения для ускорения и упрощения вычисления требований по открытым позициям. В число таких упрощений входят: ограничение набора учитываемых риск-факторов, использование простых функций распределения и предположение о нулевой или фиксированной корреляции между риск-факторами. В работе осуществлена ...
Added: June 7, 2023
Аганин А. Д., Manevich V., Peresetsky A. et al., Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2023 Т. 27 № 1 С. 49–77
The article compares GARСH and HAR models for 1 day ahead forecasting performance of the realized volatility of financial series. As an example, the cryptocurrency with the largest capitalization, Bitcoin, was chosen. Its realized volatility is calculated from intraday (24 hours) data, using the closing values of five-minute trading intervals. The paper proposes a method ...
Added: March 13, 2023
Voskoboynikov I., Journal of Productivity Analysis 2023 Vol. 59 No. 3 P. 225–241
This paper shows that the industrial origins of productivity growth in Czechia, Hungary, and Slovenia (CEE-3) and Russia before 2008 were similar and driven by manufacturing industries. The contribution of manufacturing industries to multifactor productivity (MFP) growth is substantial. In CEE-3, it exceeded market services. The contribution of labor reallocation to labor productivity growth was ...
Added: February 23, 2023
Juri Trifonov, Bogdan Potanin, HSE Economic Journal 2022 Vol. 26 No. 4 P. 623–646
This study raises the problem of modeling conditional volatility under the random shocks’ normality assumption violation. To obtain more accurate estimates of GARCH process parameters and conditional volatilities, we propose two semi-nonparametric GARCH models. The implementation of the proposed methods is based on an adaptation of the [Gallant, Nychka, 1987] semi-nonparametric method to the family ...
Added: December 6, 2022