Электоральные истоки роста популизма в Европе

Современная Европа. 2022. № 6. С. 207–218.

Petrov I.

This article examines the long-term causes behind the populist boom in Europe in the 2010s. The article tests three hypotheses concerning the structural transformation of the political spectrum, electoral competition between parties, or another explanation for this phenomenon. The methods for testing hypotheses were the spatial measurement of shifts in party positions based on the CHES and MARPOR databases, together with the analysis of electoral dynamics and regression of votes for different groups of parties. According to the findings, the growing popularity of populists has its roots in the reorientation of party systems in Europe to reflect a new, non-economic cleavage instead of the traditional left-right division of parties. Meanwhile, this process does not unfold instantly and linearly. In our opinion, at the present stage the growth of votes for populist parties is due to the weakened attractiveness of mainstream parties, which coincided with the reorientation of the populists themselves to reflect a less narrow demand of voters. The future of European populists thus largely depends on whether their choice of target groups was correct and whether they can retain these voters in the longer term.

Keywords: Политические партии и партийные системы, populism, партийная конкуренция, European politics, европейская политика, party competition, Political parties and party systems, популизм, партийные размежевания, party cleavages in modern Europe