Финансовые пузыри и финансовые кризисы
The new approach to parity of prices is the subject of article. The base of this approach is estimation of parameters of model for comparison of prices between countries. The disparity of the prices is defined as a sharp deviation of the price from the parity. Milk is taken as an example. The model on which the parity of the prices is defined, has been developed for the longterm prices fore- casting. The realization of the certain scenario of development of a national economy is a base of such forecasting
In the paper some prominent features of a modern financial system are studied using the model of leverage dynamics. Asset securitization is considered as a major factor increasing aggregate debt and hence systems uncertainty and instability. A simple macrofinancial model includes a logistic equation of leverage dynamics that reveals origins of a financial bubble, thus corresponding closely to the Minsky financial instability hypothesis. Using ROA, ROE, and the interest rate as parameters, the model provides wide spectrum of leverage and default probability trajectories for the short and long run.
During 1998-2010 the National Research University – Higher School of Economics (Moscow) has been surveying the results of activities of most leasing market operators in Russia, including all the largest ones. The results of the scheduled annual analysis undertaken by us to survey the activities of leasing companies in the Russia indicate that the year 2010 was successful for the leasing business. According to the Leaseurope, and author’s data, Russia occupies the 5th place in Europe after Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, French. In practice many Russian leasing companies have managed not only to copy but also successfully to adapt the experience of the countries with developed leasing industries. Despite the growth in new business, account must be taken of the quality of the leasing portfolio. It turned out that it just got a little better as compared with the previous year. The analysis showed that cost of loans taken for financing leasing operations, as well as the cost of the funds of a leasing company, the funds of the lessee, the use of factoring, promissory notes/exchange bills, securities and other instruments, depends on a variety of factors, including: financial independence of leasing companies; the risks associated with the sale of a leasing product; the security for the transaction; the terms of depreciation of leased property, the terms of credit contract and of leasing contracts; the currency of the leasing transaction; whether the funds are borrowed on the domestic or on the international capital market; the schemes for carrying out a leasing operation, etc. With each year there the number of Russian leasing companies that can obtain financing directly from foreign banks grows. There is a growth in the volume of credit operations with the involvement of the national agencies for insurance of export-import operations, e.g. from Germany, Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, the USA and other countries. Securitisation of leasing assets held at the junction of four financial tools – lending, leasing, factoring, securities issues. This innovative mechanism that requires subtle scientific and practical configuration achieves remarkable economic performance update, modernisation and re-equipment of enterprises. The author has developed a system of securitisation leasing asset pricing which is feasible through a set of equations that balance the interests of the participants. The article also examined the status of concentration of leasing market, its regional and sectoral structures.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.