Российские циклические индикаторы и их полезность «в реальном времени»: опыт рецессии 2008–2009 гг.
Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики. 2012. № 4. С. 479-513.
Russian cyclical indicators and their usefulness in real time: An experience of the 2008-09 recession
, Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis 2014 No. 1 P. 103-128
This report investigates the predictability of cyclical turning points in Russia. For years, anyone interested in Russia had access to a full set of common tools for business cycle analysis, such as several composite leading indicators, a purchasing managers’ index, enterprise and consumer sentiment indexes, and so on. However, the 2008-09 world financial crisis spread ...
Added: July 18, 2014
, , , Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2015 Т. 19 № 4 С. 534-553
At first, we discuss whether the concept of economic cycles is at all applicable to the realities of the Russian economy. As for several subperiods during the last 35 years, it has been not only market but planned and transformed also, this issue is arguable. But in our opinion, all mid-term factors of total economic ...
Added: November 6, 2015
Предсказание поворотных точек российского экономического цикла с помощью cводных опережающих индексов
, Вопросы статистики 2020 Т. 27 № 4 С. 53-65
The article provides a brief overview of the background of constructing composite leading indicators (CLI) for Russia; the paper defines key indicators which currently are calculated and published monthly; they can be put in practice to monitor the Russian economy. The underlying methodological approaches are analyzed, along with their advantages and disadvantages. The importance of ...
Added: August 25, 2020
, / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Economics/EC". 2015. No. WP BRP 94/EC/2015.
In this paper, I develop the leading indicators of the business cycle turning points exploiting the quarterly panel dataset comprising OECD countries and Russia over the 1980-2013 period. Contrasting to the previous studies, I combine data on OECD countries and Russia into a single dataset and develop universal models suitable for the entire sample with ...
Added: May 5, 2015
, , , / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2016. No. 122.
This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Russian economic cycle from the early 1980s to mid-2015. To detect peaks and troughs, we tested nine monthly indices as reference series, three methods of seasonal adjustments (X-12-ARIMA, TRAMO/SEATS, and CAMPLET), and four methods for dating cyclical turning points (local min/max, Bry-Boschan, Harding-Pagan, and Markov-Switching model). As ...
Added: January 22, 2016
, / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2014. No. 77.
There is evidence in the economic literature that near cyclical peaks an optimistic bias exists in private expert forecasts of real GDP growth rates. Other evidence concerns differences in the accuracy of GDP forecasts made during expansions and those made during contractions. It has also been hypothesized that a wishful bias may hamper the ability ...
Added: November 28, 2014
, / National Research University Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Basic research program". 2015. No. 20.
Russian recession of 2014/2015 began with ruble run and rise of inflation. It is just the opposite of the western-type deflationary slump combined with money hoarding. Does it mean that Russians need different micro-model to describe saving and consumption behavior? This study show that work-horse log-linearized rational SDF with CRRA utility still provides good explanation ...
Added: November 20, 2015
Leading indicators of turning points of the business cycle: panel data analysis for OECD countries and Russia
, / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2014.
The main objective of this paper is to develop leading indicators of business cycle turning points for OECD countries and Russia, in order to reveal common factors of their macroeconomic processes over a long period of time. To predict cycle turning points, leading indicator models with a discrete dependent variable reflecting a business cycle phase ...
Added: February 20, 2014
, Вопросы экономики 2013 № 7
The objective of this study is to develop a system of leading indicators of the business cycle turning points on a wide range of countries, including Russia, over a more than thirty years period. We use a binary choice model with the dependent variable of the state of economy: the recession, there is no recession. ...
Added: June 6, 2013
Интегрированный подход к построению композитных индикаторов со встроенным алгоритмом оценки цикличности в динамике результатов конъюнктурного мониторинга
, , Вопросы статистики 2013 № 12 С. 23-34
This article analyze the usability of compositional indicators of market monitoring for expending the frame of traditional cyclicity of economic activity, review of use of compositional indicators throw the example of various countries and international organizations is presented. Key selection criteria for market monitoring indicators, that are used along with quantitative statistics for joined ...
Added: January 10, 2014
Экономическое развитие и циклические настроения российских предпринимателей после рецессии 2014-2016 годов
, , , Вопросы статистики 2020 Т. 27 № 1 С. 53-70
The core objective of the study, results of which are summarized in this article, is to determine the eff ectiveness of using assessments of economic agents in the analysis of sectoral and macroeconomic development. The paper tests the hypothesis of the cross impact of economic growth and entrepreneurial behavior. It is assumed that economical cyclicity ...
Added: February 26, 2020
, , , Вопросы экономики 2023 № 10 С. 75-97
In recent decades, predicting turning points of economic cycles (their peaks and troughs) using leading indicators has established itself as a fairly simple, clear and at the same time reliable method. But the world experience has shown that any system of leading indicators requires revision and clarification from time to time. The recent non-economic shocks ...
Added: October 25, 2023
, / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP2 "Количественный анализ в экономике". 2013. No. 01.
This paper demonstrates that cyclical movements of major industrial market groups (durable and nondurable consumer products, equipment, materials and supplies) have important peculiarities in Russia and in the US. It allows a better understanding of business cycles in national economies determined with their specific structural features. Based on a statistical analysis of monthly indexes ...
Added: May 13, 2013
, Проблемы теории и практики управления 2016 № 6 С. 109-114
Methodological issues related to designing a system of indicators for tracing Russian business cycle are discussed. Several definitions of economic cycles in their application to the Russian economy are considered. Possible approaches to dating turning points, constructing composite cyclical indicators and their using for monitoring and forecasting cyclical trajectory are analyzed. ...
Added: June 29, 2016
, Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации 2016 Т. 29 № 1 С. 181-185
The observed facts about Russia’s 2015 recession, such as acceleration of inflation and lack of increase in unemployment, lead to conclusion that this recession was caused by supply-side restrictions rather than a fall in aggregate demand. Although it is not easy to identify these restrictions, they may be connected with such things as increased administrative ...
Added: May 16, 2016
, Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2010 Т. 14 № 2 С. 185-201
The article demonstrates that cyclical fluctuation of industrial outputs (consumer products, equipments, materials and supplies) have important, specific features in Russian and US's economies. The result allows to better understand the formation of business cycles of national economies within their structural peculiarity. Based on statistical analysis of physical industrial output (for Russia relevant indexes were ...
Added: October 13, 2012
Декомпозиция и совместный анализ циклов роста в динамике индикатора экономического настроения и индекса физического объема валового внутреннего продукта
, , , Вопросы статистики 2014 № 9 С. 41-47
В работе рассматривается возможность использования композитных индикаторов конъюнктурных мониторингов для измерения краткосрочных циклов экономической динамики и представлены основные результаты эмпирического исследования такого индикатора, как индекс экономического настроения в предпринимательской среде (ИЭН ВШЭ), объединяющего ключевую информацию отраслевых обследований деловых тенденций в реальном и потребительском секторах, а также в сфере услуг экономики России за период с I квартала ...
Added: September 30, 2014
, , Вопросы экономики 2010 № 1 С. 114-128
В заключительной статье рассматривается динамика развития России в контексте формирования институтов и культуры. Выделяются основные факторы, воздействующие на потенциальный барьер демократизации и перехода к инновационной экономике. С одной стороны, в России этот барьер ниже, чем в странах БРИК: бюрократия слабее китайской и нет институционального разделения общества (как в Индии и Бразилии), сравнительно высок уровень образования, ...
Added: September 29, 2012
, , , Вестник международных организаций: образование, наука, новая экономика 2018 Т. 13 № 3 С. 97-112
The paper focuses on the development trends of the transport infrastructure of Eurasia in the context of the economic and political integration of the countries at this continent. Leading states of the Asia-Pacific region (APR) made proposals on large-scale infrastructure projects in the Eurasian space after financial crisis 2008–2009. Russia is extremely interested in integrating ...
Added: November 22, 2018
, Государство и право 2011 № 6 С. 87-91
This article reviews debatable questions of the anti-corruption examination, contains the analysis of regulations, providing by Federal Law "On Anti-Corruption Examination of Regulatory Acts and their Drafts", formulates a number of suggestions concerning actualization of anti-corruption examination institute. ...
Added: September 23, 2012
, , , Foresight 2017 Vol. 19 No. 5 P. 528-540
Purpose – The purpose of the study is to show the technical potentials of a variety of renewable energy sources in Russia, as well as benefits from their deployment including hydrocarbon savings, emission reduction and lower energy cost. Design/methodology/approach – In the paper, Russia is compared with other countries in terms of actual installed capacity ...
Added: September 25, 2017
, , , Энергия: экономика, техника, экология 2012 № 5 С. 37-39
The article discusses the potential role of Russia in global carbon markets, prospects and opportunities for national businesses in greenhouse gas emission reduction ...
Added: July 20, 2016
Exports-performance relationship in Russian manufacturing companies: Does foreign ownership play an enhancing role?
, , Baltic Journal of Management 2018 Vol. 13 No. 1 P. 20-40
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between export activity and firm performance for a positive impact of foreign direct investments. We also analyse two possible causes of the effect: technology transfer and financial support. The theoretical background is rooted in the resource-based approach taking into account multinational companies’ perspective ...
Added: October 15, 2016
, International Journal of Culture,Tourism and Hospitality Research 2013 Vol. 7 No. 1 P. 3-10
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to introduce findings of comparative analysis and various models based on cultural heritage resources to foster regional development. Design/methodology/approach – Comparison of operational schemes, market positions and branding of three successful cultural heritage centers in Germany, Great Britain and Russia demonstrates a variety of regional development models based ...
Added: October 22, 2013