Прогнозирование существенно нестационарных многофакторных временных рядов на примере показателя инвестиций российских небанковских корпораций за рубеж
In this paper we propose a method for predicting significant multivariate nonstationary time series, ie series, in which changes in the structure, variables, or model coefficients of the variables. Due to the time-dependent processes that give rise to economic indicators, most economic time series falls into the category under consideration. The need to predict rate of capital flight as the subject of investigation, the volume of Russian investment abroad of non-banking corporations, as its major component.
The book gives in-depth analysis of historical background and the current economic relations between Russia and Japan.
The collection of materials of the International Conference
In many countries, including Russia, models of bilateral investment treaties (or models BIT) have been approved, on the basis of which specific treaties between different countries are then concluded. In this article, the author examines several «schools» of bilateral investment treaties: American, European, and Asian. The study is based on an analysis of the practice of concluding bilateral investment treaties by foreign countries.
The main idea of this article is focused on the new phase of the state programs of investment treaties, which includes the analysis of new models of bilateral investment treaties and invalid old models of treaties of this kind. It ends up with an assessment of the effect which new models BIT can produce on future investment contractual relations between economic entities and the receiving investments of states.
This article considers the notion of categories of foreign investments and foreign investor in the International Investment Law of Russia and Kazakhstan through the prism of three levels of legal regulation – the national legislation, bilateral and multilateral international treaties. National legislation governing foreign investments, despite having based on common legal structures and instruments, in the conceptual framework may differ significantly in the recipient state of foreign investment from that one in the country of origin of a foreign investor. The analysis of investment legislation of Kazakhstan seems to be very important in this context especially after its fundamental modification by the adoption of Business Code in 2015. This circumstance is fully applicable to the legislation of Russia and Georgia, simultaneously being participants of three of the integration processes – in the framework of the CIS, the EAEU and the SCO.
In this paper the different types of provisions on economic equilibrium, which are presented in the latest international oil and gas contracts (usually in PSA), are considered. Economic equilibrium clause is aimed at resolving the altered circumstances generated by unilateral acts of States used in the sovereign right of the entry into force of the treaty with a foreign investor. According to the mode of action, the provisions on economic equilibrium can be divided into three categories, namely, due to the economic equilibrium; unspecified economic balance, economic balance, achieved through negotiations. These categories do not create a barrier to the implementation of unilateral acts of States provide for different ways to update the economic balance, which is described on the date of entry into force of the treaty.
The article is aimed at researching and finding gaps in the state regulation of information support for the attraction of foreign investments. In addition, the issue of foreign investors' access to information is examined.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.