Современные подходы к моделированию воздействия несовершенств финансового рынка на бизнес-цикл
The paper represents the review of contemporary approaches to the analysis of financial market imperfections and financial crises and their impact on fluctuations of the key macroeconomic variables during the business cycle as well as the transmission mechanism of financial shocks on the real economy in the framework of New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. These models are widely used for the evaluation of monetary policy effects on macroeconomy and constitute the theoretical base for elaboration the optimal monetary policy not only during the crisis but for the further perspective. The construction of such models types for different economies including the Russian economy requires considering the institutional features and specific development and functioning characteristics of the of the national financial sector and economy as a whole.
The paper studies the patterns in the development of the Russian financial market after the crisis of 2008. It’s shown that along with positive phenomena, such as the creation of a modern financial market infrastructure and financial stabilization in 2015-2016, there are tendencies of deterioration of quantitative characteristics of the domestic stock market, it’s lagging behind external competitors, and a decline in the role of this market in the economy. As the key reasons restraining the growth of the financial market, the study addresses the problems of the scarcity of attractive instruments of domestic savings, excessive administrative burden on the business, restrictions on internal competition, the lack of a strategy for developing the financial market, linked to the priorities of economic policy.
Venture capital (VC) provides financial and managerial support for new innovative ideas at the initial stages of commercialization. It has helped to find the market for many radical innovations of 20th century, including personal computer, Internet and genetic engineering.
As a part of market economy venture business was not stable from the very beginning. The periods of rapid growth alternated with deep recessions. However each time VC revived anew as the Phoenix due to its very important function in modern knowledge-based economy.
This report presents an analysis of statistical data that prove the existence of several cycles in VC dynamics in the USA and the Great Britain. The main factors of these cycles formation are discussed. The author proposes two possible scenarios of development of VC market for the first 30 years of the new 21st century. A hypothesis is put forward about the relation between VC cycle's amplitude and a phase of Kondratieff's cycle.
Background and motivation for a study of business cycles, business tendency surveys (BTSs), and cyclical indicators in the BRICS countries are specified. The main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles in emerging countries and countries in transition are overviewed; the importance of the experience of the BRICS in this context is demonstrated; different examples of the interaction between business cycles and social and political spheres are outlined. At last, the structure of the book is adduced.
In this monograph revealed the key theoretical and practical issues in the field of investment projects funding with financial market instruments used by the real sector corporations. The authors proposed a scientific model of forecasting the level of interest rates in the economy with the aim of building plans for its activities, and also provides a mechanism to identify the most effective instrument of investment project funding. The main provisions are designed for the real sector of corporate economy. The authors have discussed in detail the tools of state regulation of the process of interaction between the financial and real sectors and put forward recommendations to address the shortcomings in the existing regulation. This monograph is intended for students, teachers and researchers, as well as professionals working in the field of financial management in business organizations.
The objective of this study is to develop a system of leading indicators of the business cycle turning points on a wide range of countries, including Russia, over a more than thirty years period. We use a binary choice model with the dependent variable of the state of economy: the recession, there is no recession. These models allow us to assess how likely is the change of macroeconomic dynamics from positive to negative and vice versa. Empirical analysis suggests that the inclusion of financial sector variables into equation can significantly improve the predictive power of the models of the turning points of business cycles. At the same time, models with financial and real sector variables obtained in the paper outperform the “naïve” models based only on the leading indicator of GDP in the OECD methodology due to either a lower level of noise (recession model) or a higher predictive power (model of the recovery from recession).
The article discusses the history and theory of economic olympic business cycles, their unity and difference. It shows how they differ from the classic business cycle. The authors analyze the role of IOC in olympic business cycle.
This thought-provoking monograph analyzes long- medium- and short-term global cycles of prosperity, recession, and depression, plotting them against centuries of important world events. Major research on economic and political cycles is integrated to clarify evolving relationships between the global center and its periphery as well as current worldwide economic upheavals and potential future developments. Central to this survey are successive waves of industrial and, later, technological and cybernetic progress, leading to the current era of globalization and the changes of the roles of both Western powers and former minors players, however that will lead to the formation of the world order without a hegemon. Additionally, the authors predict what they term the Great Convergence, the lessening of inequities between the global core and the rest of the world, including the wealth gap between First and Third World nations.
Among the topics in this ambitious volume:
· Why politics is often omitted from economic analysis.
· Why economic cycles are crucial to understanding the modern geopolitical landscape.
· How the aging of the developed world will affect world technological and economic future.<
· The evolving technological forecast for Global North and South.
· Where the U.S. is likely to stand on the future world stage.
Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery will inspire discussion and debate among sociologists, global economists, demographers, global historians, and futurologists. This expert knowledge is necessary for further research, proactive response, and preparedness for a new age of sociopolitical change.