Сценарии развития мировой электроэнергетики до 2030 г.: основные тенденции, риски и неопределенности

Проблемы экономики и управления нефтегазовым комплексом. 2022. № 2. С. 58–64.

Sinitsyn M.

Scenario analysis of world electricity in the long-term perspective within the general context of global economic growth allowed to make the following main conclusions. First, developed and developing countries, especially the exporters of manufacturing products, demonstrate principally different approaches to electricity sector development. While developed countries, first of all European ones, consider decarbonization of electricity a priority and are ready for increase of electricity price, developing countries put at the forefront the goal of supporting high dynamics of economic growth, and for this reason continue to relay on the cheapest electricity generation, including coal. Second, developed countries are not ready and do not possess economic capacity to increase transfer of grants and preferential aid to developing countries on scale sufficient for the accelerated decarbonization of the latter. Third, developing and some leading developed countries are not ready for introducing of mandatory tax on greenhouse gases, especially at level allowing to reach the Paris climate agreement goals. These and related fundamental factors will determine the structure of electricity generation by primary energy sources in the foreseeable perspective. Depending on level oа development and primary energy resources endowment countries will remain at very different stages of transition to green energy.

Keywords: Китай, развивающиеся страны, электроэнергетика, Индия, China, developing countries, developed countries, India, развитые страны, electricity, decarbonization, декарбонизация, renewables, НВИЭ, cost of energy transition, carbon emission tax, цена энергетического перехода, налог на эмиссию углерода