Влияние коалиций давления на оборонную политику в России: случай реформы Сердюкова
Between 2007 and 2012, the Russian armed forces went through unprecedented changes that affected all elements of the military organization. Despite political and financial support from the president and prime minister, the reformers could not meet all reform goals, and some changes were slowed down or backpaddled. The research uses data from 18 expert interviews, online media materials and employs the advocacy coalition framework to show that the Ministry of Defense has been unable to implement some changes because of the opposition within the military and presidential coalitions of civil-military relations. Interagency resistance forced the Ministry of Defense to abandon some of the changes. Some others were canceled after Minister Serdyukov’s ouster. This article demonstrates the strategies that the reformers used to pursue their goals and overcome the resistance from the reform opponents. The resistance eventually led to the defence minister's resignation, which halted further radical changes in the Russian armed forces. The results show that even the full political support from an authoritarian leader cannot save politicians and their programs from the influence of other actors. Dissatisfaction with the changes split the presidential coalition. It also damaged the interagency interaction, which ultimately weakened the managerial position of the reformer. Moreover, this case study showed that in civil-military relations, the conformity of the reformer’s behavior with the dominant military beliefs plays a major role alongside the factual component of reform.