Психологические теории группового поведения и их применимость для объяснения стадного поведения на финансовых рынках
The article describes the development of the sociological and economic theories of herd behavior and discusses their applicability for the explanation of the phenomenon of herd behavior in the financial markets. This article is the second one in the series of three publications devoted to the theoretical foundations of the financial bubbles. The first article dealing with the psychological theories is published in the e-journal The Corporate Finance, vol. 13, # 1, 2010.
Herd behavior, mass psychology, Financial market, financial mania
The assessment of decision-making strategies based mainly on the reflection and self-evaluation of the choice does not allow predicting and, therefore, learning the ways of decision strategies management in personally important situations or in any way connected with great risk. Selection sequence of solutions, the subjective assessment of selected and rejected alternatives, assessment of the results achieved after each selection allowed to diagnose the examinee’s attitude to his or her emotional responding to the specifics of the situation and ways of coping. Object: financial sector experts Subject: the decision making process in the situation of emotional risk alternatives selection. Tasks were: · Analyze the current approaches to the evaluation of decision-making in situations where the choice is connected with emotions; · Compare the existing methods of evaluation of emotional component in decision-making; · Develop an assessment procedure for the emotional risk management in the decision making process. · Approbation of the developed procedure on the financial experts, comparing the results with the evaluation of the decision and emotional state. Results were effective work strategies for the decision-specific specialist of the financial sector.
The article represents a review of the different theories of financial bubbles developed within modern financial theory. It is a concluding article in a series of three articles devoted to the theoretical foundations of financial bubbles. The previous articles are published in the e-journal The Corporate Finance, vol. 13-14, # 1-3, 2010.
In this monograph revealed the key theoretical and practical issues in the field of investment projects funding with financial market instruments used by the real sector corporations. The authors proposed a scientific model of forecasting the level of interest rates in the economy with the aim of building plans for its activities, and also provides a mechanism to identify the most effective instrument of investment project funding. The main provisions are designed for the real sector of corporate economy. The authors have discussed in detail the tools of state regulation of the process of interaction between the financial and real sectors and put forward recommendations to address the shortcomings in the existing regulation. This monograph is intended for students, teachers and researchers, as well as professionals working in the field of financial management in business organizations.
Monograph by S. Khasyanova «Upgrading Banking Regulation and Supervision in Russia in the line with International Standards» is devoted to the study of the development of banking regulation and supervision in Russia on the basis of international principles and standards. The process of implementation of international principles and standards of banking regulation in the Russian Federation and the following consequences are analyzed in the context of financial stability. Particular attention is paid to macroeconomic regulation and development of prudential regulations and requirements for banks, taking into account banking sector peculiarities. The regulation of systemic risk, identification of systemically important banks and applied to them a particular regulatory regime were investigated. The Deposit Insurance System and its role in enhancing the stability of banks as well as its directions of improvement are also considered in the study. The book is intended for professionals in the field of finance and banking, teachers and students of universities’ economic and financial departments.
Financial markets tend to demonstrate extreme events in prices dynamics, among those are jumps leading to drastic prices’ changes and even regimes switching as well as for some instruments and for the markets overall.
Effective forecasting of price dynamics and actions planning by the market participants doesn’t necessary demand exact future price trajectories extrapolation, but estimation of duration of time periods, during which the prices won’t fall down more than a given mark could be enough.
In the paper an approach to forecasting durations between consequent market crashes is suggested. A significant autocorrelation was found in durations between crashes of DJIA during more than last 80 years. These autocorrelation allowed estimating a series of autoregressive conditional duration models to forecast time periods before next index crash. The models demonstrate significant forecasting power, especially in situations when consequent crashes appear rather frequently.
The text-book consists of 5 chapters, which deals with key aspects of methodology and research techniques in economic research in general, at regional level and in main economic sectors - state and corporate, including financial one.
Intended for use by pastgraduate students, majoring in Economics (38.06.01), professors of economic universities and all those, who are interested in scientific problems of economics.
We consider multistage bidding models where two types of risky assets (shares) are traded between two agents that have different information on the liquidation prices of traded assets. These prices are random integer variables that are determined by the initial chance move according to a probability distribution p over the two-dimensional integer lattice that is known to both players. Player 1 is informed on the prices of both types of shares, but Player 2 is not. The bids may take any integer value.
The model of n-stage bidding is reduced to a zero-sum repeated game with lack of information on one side. We show that, if liquidation prices of shares have finite variances, then the sequence of values of n-step games is bounded. This makes it reasonable to consider the bidding of unlimited duration that is reduced to the infinite game G1(p). We offer the solutions for these games.
We begin with constructing solutions for these games with distributions p having two and three-point supports. Next, we build the optimal strategies of Player 1 for bidding games G1(p) with arbitrary distributions p as convex combinations of his optimal strategies for such games with distributions having two- and three-point supports. To do this we construct the symmetric representation of probability distributions with fixed integer expectation vectors as a convex combination of distributions with not more than three-point supports and with the same expectation vectors.
Several approaches to the concept of fatherhood present in Western sociological tradition are analyzed and compared: biological determinism, social constructivism and biosocial theory. The problematics of fatherhood and men’s parental practices is marginalized in modern Russian social research devoted to family and this fact makes the traditional inequality in family relations, when the father’s role is considered secondary compared to that of mother, even stronger. However, in Western critical men’s studies several stages can be outlined: the development of “sex roles” paradigm (biological determinism), the emergence of the hegemonic masculinity concept, inter-disciplinary stage (biosocial theory). According to the approach of biological determinism, the role of a father is that of the patriarch, he continues the family line and serves as a model for his ascendants. Social constructivism looks into man’s functions in the family from the point of view of masculine pressure and establishing hegemony over a woman and children. Biosocial theory aims to unite the biological determinacy of fatherhood with social, cultural and personal context. It is shown that these approaches are directly connected with the level of the society development, marriage and family perceptions, the level of egality of gender order.
We address the external effects on public sector efficiency measures acquired using Data Envelopment Analysis. We use the health care system in Russian regions in 2011 to evaluate modern approaches to accounting for external effects. We propose a promising method of correcting DEA efficiency measures. Despite the multiple advantages DEA offers, the usage of this approach carries with it a number of methodological difficulties. Accounting for multiple factors of efficiency calls for more complex methods, among which the most promising are DMU clustering and calculating local production possibility frontiers. Using regression models for estimate correction requires further study due to possible systematic errors during estimation. A mixture of data correction and DMU clustering together with multi-stage DEA seems most promising at the moment. Analyzing several stages of transforming society’s resources into social welfare will allow for picking out the weak points in a state agency’s work.