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Article

Is it so bad that we cannot recognize black swans?

Economics Letters. 2012. Vol. 117. No. 3. P. 563-565.

We present processes on stock exchange as two random processes one of which reflects the regular regime of economy and the other one–crises. If regular processes are correctly recognized with the probability slightly higher than 1/2, this gives positive average gain to the player. We believe that this very phenomenon lies on the basis of unwillingness of people to expect crises permanently and to try recognizing them.