Is it so bad that we cannot recognize black swans?
We present processes on stock exchange as two random processes one of which reflects the regular regime of economy and the other one–crises. If regular processes are correctly recognized with the probability slightly higher than 1/2, this gives positive average gain to the player. We believe that this very phenomenon lies on the basis of unwillingness of people to expect crises permanently and to try recognizing them.
This paper studies program implementation problem of pseudo-random number generators in OpenModelica. We give an overview of generators of pseudo-random uniform distributed numbers. They are used as a basis for construction of generators of normal and Poisson distributions. The last step is the creation of Wiener and Poisson stochastic processes generators. We also describe the algorithm to call external C-functions from programs written in Modelica. This allows us to use random number generators implemented in the C language.
We introduce simulation models of stock exchange to explore which traders are successful and how their strategies influence to their wealth and probability of bankruptcy. The results of our experiments show that there is a critical level of agent’s experience (or luck) such that agents with this or higher level almost sure will survive on the market on the long run. This critical level is just slightly higher 1/2 and such small value explains why so many people try to trade on the stock exchange. But if trader uses margin trading, the critical level is much higher and shows the risk of excessive losses.
The article focuses on the impact of financial crisis in Indonesia on the budget for public infrastructure, services, and transfers. The behavior response of the population to the crisis could mean future welfare costs of an economy. With this regard, multiple equilibria in the income or wealth dynamics at the household level has been suggested in such away that hysteresis can stem from a transient income. A counterfactual assessment of the local welfare impacts of the crisis, both in short and long-term is provided.
Computer simulation of equilibrium prices for the stock exchange
Mathematical and computer simulation of economic processes.
The article examines the experience of China's investment policy aimed at creating favorable conditions to attract investment, particularly foreign direct investments, to the most important country's industries. In recent years, this policy (the establishment of free economic zones, trade liberalization, the establishment of an appropriate legislative framework, state support for investors) has brought noticeable positive results, but with the beginning of the global financial crisis allowed to avoid the most painful consequences. This experience taking into account all its particularities can be useful for our economy.
The paper investigates the optimization methods used by an investor working on the Russian stork market. The efficient sets, corresponding for the two different states of the market (with «moderate» and «rapid» growth rates), are build. The paper denies the necessity of the «deep» diversification of the portfolio on the Russian stork market. Some recommendations concerning the investment portfolio management are formulated.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.