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Regular version of the site

Article

A stochastic model of the 2007 Russian Duma election

Public Choice. 2010. Vol. 142. No. 1-2. P. 177-194.
Schofield N., Zakharov A.

In this paper we consider the nature of local Nash equilibrium (LNE) for a model
of the 2007 Duma election in Russia, using estimates of valence obtained from sociodemographic
variables.
We then extend this sociodemographic valence model by including institutional valences,
the approval by voters of the various institutions, including the President, the PrimeMinister,
the State Duma and the Federation Council.We show by simulation that the vote maximizing
LNE of this general stochastic model were not at the electoral origin. The dominant feature
of the election was the influence of approval or disapproval of President Putin on each voter’s
political choice.